3 Energy
4.1Energy
4.2 Our overall contextual emphasis has been on the dynamic functioning of the ecological system and the central role of energy conversion as the key to basic life processes. The fundamental relationships governing energy input to the system and some of its main uses have been sketched, for example, in the photosynthetic and other cycles.
4.3 In this section, we are primarily concerned with energy as work and production energies – those prime movers used in the industrial system, their fuels, and efficiency of conversion. The vast increase in the amounts of energy required to sustain our present levels of productivity and the necessary augmentation of such levels to accommodate even more men, at higher standards of living, leads to questions of the most efficient types of energy conversion, transmission and process uses. The nature of the fuels used and their possible pollutant by-products are now a considerable factor within the discussion. The amounts required in the immediate and long range future call into question certain preferential uses of specific fuels and the more economic conservation of others.
4.4 Let us consider, first, the overall supply of energy to the ecosystem. The prime sources are radiant energy from the sun, the kinetic and potential energy of the earth gravitational system and that which is radiated from the interior of the earth. Of these, our central focus is on solar energy. Gravitational energy enters into all energy transactions on the earth surface, but is considered less of a direct source other than through its secondary derivatives of water and tidal power. The interior earth energies, geothermal, have not been used on a large scale so far. To these three main sources, we might add those energies accruing from the earth spin and atmospheric circulation – wind energies and differences in temperature and pressure related to climatic change – now less widely used than in former periods.
4.5 In dealing with solar energy input, we note that this has been ongoing for millions of years and that successive layers of such energies have been ’impounded’, or stored, in the earth from the organic energy conversions of animals and plants. These are now usually referred to as the fossil fuels – oil, coal and types of natural gas associated with such deposits. The bio-mass, that is, the entire complex of all life forms on earth, also represents a long and continuous impounding process of solar energies.
4.6 In addition to this organic process of energy storage, both past and present, we should also consider that the materials mass of the earth itself represents a vast store of cosmic energies locked in a myriad of chemical combinations from the major geological periods of the earth’s physical formation.
4.7 We have, thus, a division as above into stored energies such as the fossil fuels and fissionable elements in the earth crust, and those energies in constantly renewed income from solar radiation and other sources.
4.8 Before proceeding to examine the implications of this overall view of the energy system, we should consider man’s role as central to our analysis. His individual unit efficiency as a food energy converter has already been discussed – about one half to one horsepower hour per day. The development of human society has, therefore, been predicated
4.9 1) on the use of collective human energies to perform tasks beyond the individual’s capacity.
4.10 2) on the use of animal energies
4.11 64 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.12 THE EARTH’S ENERGY FLUX
4.13 RADIANT ENERGY received by earth STELLAR & chiefly directly reflected short SOLAR energy wave-length radiation energy RE-RADIATED to space long wave- length radiation
4.14 GRAVITATIONAL, ROTATIONAL, ELECTRO-MAGNETIC ENERGIES, etc.
4.15 ENERGY ABSORBED BY THE ATMOSPHERE AND HYDROSPHERE (used in the hydrological cycle etc.) Evaporation, precipitation, runoff, etc. Winds, waves, ocean currents, tides & tidal currents, etc.
4.16 ENERGY ABSORBED BY THE BIOSPHERE (used in the life cycles) Plant photosynthesis etc. Terrestrial and marine animal life RESPIRATION DECAY
4.17 ENERGY ABSORBED IN THE LITHOSPHERE (used in the geo-chemical cycles) Thermal, chemical & nuclear energy. FOSSIL FUELS Conduction and convection from earth’s interior
4.18 "... The earth may be regarded as a material system whose gain or loss of matter over the period of our interest is negligible. Into and out of this sys- tem, however, there occurs a continuous flux of energy in consequence of which the material constituents of the outer part of the earth undergo continuous or intermittent circulation. The material constituents of the earth comprise the familiar chemical elements. These, with the exception of a small number of ra- dioactive elements, may be regarded as being nontransmutable and constant in amount in processes occuring naturally on the earth.
4.19 The energy inputs into the earth’s surface environment are principally from three sources: 1) the energy derived from the sun by means of solar radiation, 2) the energy derived from the mechanical kinetic and potential energy of the earth-sun-moon system which is manifested principally in the oceanic tides and tidal currents, and 3) the energy derived from the interior of the earth itself in the form of outward heat conduction, and heat convected to the surface by volcanos and hot springs. Secondary sources of energy of much smaller magnitude than those cited are the energy received by radiation from the stars, the plants, and the moon, and the energy released from the interior of the earth in the pro- cess of erecting and eroding mountain ranges.
4.20 ...With the exception of an insignificant amount of energy storage, the en- ergy which leaves the earth by long-wavelength thermal radiation into space must be equal to the comined energy inputs from solar and stellar radiation, from ti- dal forces, and from the earth’s interior." – M. K. Hubbert.
4.21 Source: Energy Resources, M. K. Hubbert, National Academy of Sciences.
4.22 3) on the use of inanimate machine energies.
4.23 The process of development has been from low energy conversion to high energy conversion.
4.24 The use of human muscular energies, even collectively, is not very economical and, like that of animal energies, diminishes the stock of food energies necessary to maintain further energy conversion. Inanimate or mechanical energy converters were the obvious direction which gave greater amounts of work energy and did not diminish food energy stocks, thereby surpluses could be built up and further survival advantage gained.
4.25 Possibly the first large scale energy converters were ships drawing upon wind energies to move large quantities of goods and men. We have commented earlier on the importance of sea technologies historically, and this is a further example:
4.26 The energy costs of operating a ship are only those of building, maintaining and manning it. The surplus energy derived from the sails is potentially enormous as compared with the cost of producing the sail and hoisting it . . . men, using the sailing ship came into control of very large amounts of power largely independent of plant life or of the number of persons in the population using it.ź
4.27 As the above author details further, in his text, the most efficient sailing ships were able to produce a maximum of 200-250 times the human energy required to operate them. Land energy converters such as the water and windmills, which provided the major sources of inanimate energies up till the introduction of the steam engine did not match such levels of conversion efficiency.š
4.28 For the greater part of human history, until a scant few hundred years ago, most energies available to man were organic sources from his own muscles and that of his domesticated animals. Our own period is peculiarly marked off from all others as the first in which man has had access to abundant energy supplies from inanimate sources. Through accumulated knowledge his gain in energy has increased enormously in the past hundred years – as the conceptual tools of science formed new technological means giving higher degrees of energy conversion than ever before. Though many men in the lesser developed regions of the world are still constrained to spend their lives as ’mechanical’ energy converters dependent for survival on their own muscle power, man’s role is increasingly that of a designer of high energy conversion systems – even now passing the routine control of such systems to other electro-mechanical agents.
4.29 The gain from low to high energy converters is not confined to quantity only, but to the speed with which energy is available for a given task and the conditions under which inanimate high energy converters can operate, e.g., round the clock with no ’organic’ rest required.
4.30 źEnergy and Society, F. Cottrell, (McGraw Hill Book Co., 1955).
4.31 šMedieval Technology and Social Change, L. White, Jr. (This generalization is not to discount the advances in energy conversion technology which occurred in both East and West in early periods) e.g., "In 1086 the Domesday Book lists 5,624 (water) mills for 3,000 English communities." (O. U. Press, New York, 1966).
4.32 66 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.33 WORLD POPULATION/ENERGY
4.34 WORLD POPULATION/ENERGY PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
4.35 Energy Consumption & Production (in billions of metric tons coal equivalent)
4.36 PRODUCTION
4.37 CONSUMPTION
4.38 1967
4.39 POPULATION
4.40 billions 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 .5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
4.41 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 billions
4.42 Source: Data compiled from U. N. and other sources.
4.43 Zimmerman gives an interesting comparative example of the speed and energy costs differential between wholly animate and human plus inanimate energies.
4.44 If we assume that the building of an Egyptian pyramid required the work of 50,000 slaves for twenty years, while a skyscraper of comparable size can be built by 5000 laborers in six months, the number of workers at a given moment is as 10 to 1; but if the time element is taken into account, the ratio is 400 to 1. This means that it took approximately 400 times as much food to generate the manpower that built the pyramid as it took to feed workers who built the pyramid.ş
4.45 Though the building manpower ratio has already been decreased, the notion of inanimate slave energy as replacing human labor is a fruitful concept which has been particularly explored by R. Buckminster Fuller. His energy slave unit is arrived at by taking the total energy income for the earth as measurably consumed by man in one year, and dividing this by 25 to give a four per cent figure of energy gainfully employed at present rates of overall efficiency. This (four per cent) net energy used, as expressed in kilowatts per year, is divided by one manpower year (i.e., the amount of energy which could be provided by the world population of the year, working 8 hours per day per year. This gives the number of electro-mechanical energy slave units available.
4.46 Such ’energy slaves’ would represent the amounts of energy conversion disposed of directly by man in the form of personal appliances, heating/lighting energies, autos, telephones, etc., as well as those on the industrial network as also available to him indirectly in a variety of ways.
4.47 We may indicate the gain in such energy slave availability by noting that, in his Presidential Address to the British Association – in 1911, Sir William Ramsay estimated that each British family then had an average of twenty energy ’helots’ in its service," and comparing this to successive later periods. We may presume that Ramsay’s energy helot is roughly comparable to the Fuller energy slave as calculated above. From 20 such units per family (of say, five persons) in 1911, the general European level had risen to approximately 150 by 1940 and over 400 per five person units by 1960, i.e., 81 per capita).
4.48 To appreciate the significance of such energy slaves in terms of standard of living advantage, we may show the contrast with Africa as an entire region – whose comparable energy slave measure remains approximately 10 to 15 up to the present day.
4.49 Map Areas Population 1960 % of World Population Energy Slaves per Capita Asia 1,679,000,000 56 3 Europe 641,000,000 24.1 81 Africa 254,000,000 8.5 10
4.50 şAn Introduction to World Resources, Erich W. Zimmerman, ed. Henry L. Hunker, (Harper and Row, New York, 1964).
4.51 "Future Energy Prospects at Home and Abroad", A. R. J. P. Ubbelohde, Advancement of Science, September 1965.
4.52 Document I,"Inventory of World Resources, Human Trends and Needs" (1963) R. B. Fuller and John McHale, Southern Illinois University
4.53 68 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.54 THE WORLD’S MAJOR ENERGY SOURCES
4.55 Source: Energy for Man, Hans Thirring, (New York: Harper & Row), 1962, p. 218.
4.56 WORLD ENERGY RESOURCES USED IN 1964* (in millions of metric tons coal equivalent)
4.57 World Areas Total % of Total Coal Petro Gas Hydro-elect. and Nuclear N. America 1706.706 33.51 464.650 567.169 637.831 37.056 U.S.S.R. 870.464 17.09 425.500 290.684 144.610 9.670 East Asia 400.064 7.85 373.610 11.974 2.964 11.516*** South Asia 618.357 12.14** 70.192 534.272** 10.949 2.943 Africa 159.280 3.13 49.440 107.155 1.171 1.514 Latin America 357.779 7.02 8.097 308.210 35.854 5.618 Europe 942.600 18.51 813.874 47.595 46.567 34.555 Oceania 38.107 .75 35.683 .247 .004 2.173
4.58 WORLD TOTALS 5093.357 100.00 2241.046 1867.307 879.959 105.045
4.59 *This includes non-fuel use of petrochemicals; also power ’generated’, e.g. hydro and nuclear.
4.60 **These relatively large proportions can be attributed to the oil producing countries, most notably Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
4.61 ***This relatively large figure is primarily due to hydro-electric production.
4.62 Source: World Energy Supplies 1961-1964, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Statistical Office of the U.N., (New York: United Nations), 1966, Series I, No. 9.
4.63 A further important characteristic is that such electro-mechanical slave units, though only calculated as doing the work equivalent of humans, are enormously more effective.
4.64 They can work under conditions intolerable to man, e.g., 5000ř Fahrenheit, with no sleep, to ten thousandsths of an inch tolerance, can see at one million magnification of man’s vision, have 400,000 pounds per square inch sinuosity, 186,000 miles per second alacrity, etc.
4.65 All such technological undertakings are now dependent upon vast amounts of inanimate energy supplies to maintain them. Even the extraction, processing and fabrication of their mineral and metal components would be impossible without such energy inputs.
4.66 The power produced by the Bratsk Hydroelectric Power Station alone is greater than the amount of energy that would be obtained by using the muscular efforts of the entire able-bodied population of the U.S.S.R.
4.67 We may return, therefore, to closer consideration of such supplies and how we presently use them. Our earlier division of sources is a useful one – into capital or stored solar energies, and income or renewable daily, cyclic sources of naturally occurring energies.
4.68 Major Energy Sources
4.69 CAPITAL: the stored, unrenewable energy deposits in the earth.
4.70 1. Fossil Fuels: Coal, Natural Gas, Oil (including shale and oil sands).
4.71 2. Nuclear Fuels: Those elements which may yield energy through nuclear fission and fusion processes.
4.72 The main fossil fuel deposits have been built up over a 500 million year geological time period. Their presently prodigal use, with its many deleterious by-product effects, suggests that we review such usages with care in that they do represent a convenient and accessible form of stored energy which could be used now, or in the future, in many different, much more economical and intelligent ways. Nuclear energies, available from the fission of heavy element isotopes and the fusion of lighter elements, though extensible toward an income energy resource through profusion of materials, is presently limited by various factors, e.g., including the disposal of its by-product wastes.
4.73 Document I (World Energy Chapter) in the present series, R. B. Fuller.
4.74 Cybernetics and Problems of Development, B. V. Akhlibininisky and N. I. Khralenko, (Lenizdat Publishing House, U.S.S.R., 1963).
4.75 Though earth crust sources of such fuels may be viewed as exhaustible ’capital’ energy deposits, the extension of the processes to ocean elements such as deuterium, might supply an almost unlimited source of energy through nuclear generation.
4.76 70 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.77 WORLD ENERGY FLOW SHEET - 1964
4.78 WORLD ENERGY FLOW FOR 1964 in millions of metric tons (MMT) coal equivalent
4.79 Fuel % & Nuclear Hydroelectric 1.71 = 105
4.80 VEGETAL FUELS: fuel wood, farm bagasse, grass, wasted, straw. and 36.57 = 2,241 15.90 = 974 14.36 = 880 1.00 = 61 animate
4.81 Total Fuel 100.00% 6,128 MMT coal equivalent total energy
4.82 INITIAL LOSSES & DIVERSIONS Total energy lost in use = 3998.86 MMT (attributed mainly to wasteful dissipation of heat in the course of energy use and to initial losses & diversions) total lost in use = 65.25% total used = 34.75%
4.83 INITIAL LOSSES and DIVERSIONS 1015.41 16.57% 1. Processing and Transmission LOSSES 2. Diverted to NON- FUEL use, i.e., syn- thetics, etc. 3. Stored or UNAC- COUNTABLE 4. Miscellaneous
4.84 42.16 AGRICULTURE .69% 929.77 TRANSPORTATION 15.17% 1102.96 HOUSEHOLD 18.00% 908.56 INDUSTRIAL 14.82%
4.85 Total amount of energy used = 2129.14 MMT heat = 79.56% = 1693.88 MMT power = 20.44% = 435.26 MMT
4.86 1225.21 INDUSTRIAL 20.00% 671.71 HOUSEHOLD 10.96% 168.98 TRANSPORTATION 2.76% 63.24 AGRICULTURE 1.03%
4.87 HEAT-POWER divisions in use sectors
4.88 sectors heat % power % INDUSTRIAL 90.00 10.00 HOUSEHOLD 88.00 12.00 TRANSPORTATION —- 100.00 AGRICULTURE —- 100.00
4.89 Major Data Sources: Proceedings of the International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, Volume 1, "The World’s Requirements for Energy: The Role Nuclear Energy", United Nations, N.Y., 1956. Statistical Papers, Series J no. 9, "World Energy Supplies 1961-64", United Nations, N.Y., 1966.
4.90 INCOME: the naturally recurring energies available to man by tapping into the regenerative cycles in the ecosystem.
4.91 1. Photosynthesis: we have hitherto considered this energy conversion process only in its food energy cycling role. There are many other ways in which energy may be directly extracted from vegetation product cycles, e.g., through fuels from tree-wood and other sources; by microbial action in ’biological fuel cells,’ etc.
4.92 2. Other Direct Solar Energy Uses: through concentrating lenses and reflectors into cooling devices; photoelectrical and photochemical fuel cells, etc.
4.93 3. Hydrological: as derived from the earth gravitational system through rivers, dams, etc., and the direct use of tidal and wave power; also, various modes of tapping into the hydrological cycle of evaporation/precipitation.
4.94 4. Wind: though this is intermittent and variable, improvements in storage capacities may enable this source to be more widely used.
4.95 5. Temperature: temperature differentials between atmospheric and earth/water surfaces yield energy potentials of considerable magnitude.
4.96 6. Geothermal: tapping directly into the heat of the earth either through naturally occurring volcanic sources of hot gases and waters or by drilling artificial vents for similar purposes.
4.97 7. Other ’Unconventional’ Sources: Magneto-hydrodynamics, thermionics, etc.
4.98 The income energies summarily noted above, have fewer demerits than any of the capital energy sources in terms of pollutant by-products and other noxious side effects to humans, or as yet ascertained effects on the overall function of the ecological system. Apart from being ’cleaner’ energy sources, they are also potentially inexhaustible as renewed by the sun, or as occurring in the naturally cyclic ecosystem’s operation. In terms of environ re-design they afford many experimental and innovative directions which are relatively unexplored through our over-dependence on the fossil fuels. Aerospace technologies have already given considerable lead here in their utilization of self powered communications and other systems dependent on fuel cells of different types.
4.99 Present Energy Use Distributions
4.100 Our major problem, as stated, is to generally increase the availability of energy so as to further advantage the more than half of humanity who are presently far below the industrialized standard of living. This will mean considerable increases in:
4.101 1) the generation of energy
4.102 2) its conversion efficiencies
4.103 3) the transmission and distribution of energies to where they may be readily available around the earth
4.104 72 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.105 It is instructive to compare the location of our present world tension/local war areas and the correlation which exists between these and low energy conversion availability, population and food pressures. The key to many of our present world problems lies within the global energy distribution pattern.
4.106 Our past and present uses of industrial energies, and the prospects forward from such continued fuel uses, underline the critical nature of world energy availability both for the developed as well as the under-developed regions.
4.107 The production of world energy (which parallels, but does not exactly match consumption figures due to various indirect uses, losses in transmission, etc.) has increased at the average rate of 3 1/4 per cent annually from 1860 to 1958 with various growth periods when levels rose above five to six ’per cent’. From 1958 to 1961 this annual increase rate has risen considerably. The world’s consumption of industrial energy from all sources increased by approximately 19 per cent during the period 1961 to 1964. This was an unprecedented rise to a new level which we may expect to be sustained, – with higher increase in the present years, due to population rise and the rate of industrialization of underdeveloped regions.
4.108 Energy production rose by the same figure during 1961-64, and significant rises were in the area of fossil fuel uses.
4.109 Much of the rise in energy consumption was accounted for by increases in the high energy economies, e.g., the United States consumed about one third of the world’s total industrial energy for less than seven per cent of the world’s population; Europe and the U.S.S.R. showed corresponding increases:
4.110 The industrial regions dominate the consumption of each of the industrial fuels . . .consumed 77 per cent of the world’s most important energy source – coal – in 1963; 81 per cent of world’s petroleum; 95 per cent of all natural gas; and 80 per cent of hydroelectricity and nuclear power . . .the non-industrial world with 71 per cent of the world’s population used 77 per cent of all human energy; 87 per cent of all animal energy and 73 per cent of total fuel wood and waste in 1963.ź
4.111 In round terms, the total energy supply in 1964 was an average of 1.6 short tons, (coal equivalent) for each person in the world. The increase in the high energy economies further dramatizes the gap between these and the low energy developing regions – in per capita terms, the more fortunate individual in the former, consumed more than fifty times the industrial energy of his counterpart in the poorer regions.
4.112 What this means in other measures may be gauged by the following: The United States is used as a comparative example as recent figures are more readily available.
4.113 U. N. World Energy Supplies 1961-64.
4.114 źThe Geography of World Energy Consumption, R. A. Harper, (Key to Geographic Understanding), Department of Geography, Southern Illinois University, 1966.
4.115 Steel Production one fourth of the world total Autos three fifths of all the world’s cars Trucks two out of every five Surfaced Roads third of the world total Electricity uses third of all electrical power produced on earth Railroad Freight one quarter of world total Civil Aviation half the world mileage11
4.116 When this disparity is compounded with expected population increases in the next few decades, it may be viewed in energy terms as a two-fold dilemma.
4.117 Firstly, world population is expected to double by the year 2000, i.e., in thirty- three years. No matter what types of controls may be sought or imposed, this figure of approximately 6 billion is unlikely to be much reduced within the time at our disposal. Even given the present distribution of population and energy resources and the increases in energy conversion efficiencies to be expected from improved technologies, this will still require more than double our present energy production and consumption.
4.118 At first glance, this may particularly entail a doubling of present fossil fuel uses – with parallel side effects, unless stringent filtering and more efficient burning is accom- plished. The increased use of such fuels raises serious doubts, not only about their reserve capacity, but about the wisdom of using up such an accessible, but swiftly exhaustible, store. With a world increasingly dependent on inanimate energies, it seems crass stupidity to clean out the cupboard (or bank balance) before checking on future income or unforeseen emergencies. Given that we maintain our present use level, it may then require more than 10 billion tons of coal equivalent energies annually.
4.119 Secondly, however, it is calculated that to maintain double our present world popu- lation by the year 2000 will require not double, but about five times more energy. Though the rate of industrialization is slow in the developing regions, some already showed a growth rate of electricity consumption of 15 to 22 per cent between 1963 and 1964.
4.120 Our present problems, therefore, call for the swiftest increase in the use of other than fossil fuel energies. This may be particularly applicable to the lesser developed re- gions which are lowest in these resources, but correspondingly high in access to solar, hydro and tidal power sources. The latter two may be most applicable to systems of large scale electrical generation with the corresponding increase of industrialization. Augment- ing this, we require:
4.121 1) the selection and preferred use in such regions of high energy conversion means.
4.122 2) the extension via enlarged transmission networks of electrical power from the presently available, and increasing, concentration of generating plants in the industrial regions.
4.123 3) the swift development of locally autonomous power sources, e.g. from solar, wind and hydropower to fuel cell and nuclear power plants for local agri-industrial usage, communications, transport and other needs.
4.124 11U.S. News and World Report, March 6, 1967.
4.125 74 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.126 PROJECTED WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION
4.127 PROJECTIONS OF ENERGY CONSUMED IN THE YEAR 2000 COMPARED TO 1960 ACTUAL BY WORLD AREAS (Billions of metric tons of coal equivalent)
4.128 Energy consumption in year 2000 if Actual consumption Trend in world consumption World consumption is at US World consumption is at W. N.America, Europe, Oceania & USSR from 1950 to 1960 continues 1960 per capita level Europe 1960 per capita level are at US 1960 per capita level & all other areas are at Europe 1960 level Areas 1960 (1) (2) (3) (4) World Total 4.20 22.40 55.30 17.70 25.10 Per Capita* 1.39 3.65 9.02 2.88 4.09 Northern America 1.55 2.68 2.61 .84 2.61 Latin America .14 3.18 5.22 1.67 1.67 Western Europe .79 2.98 3.45 1.10 3.45 East Europe & USSR .90 4.6? 4.49 1.44 4.49 Communist Asia .40 5.0? 14.40 4.60 4.60 Non-Communist Asia .24 2.90 20.00 6.40 6.40 Africa .08 1.00 5.31 1.70 1.70 Oceania .05 .10 .24 .80 .24
4.129 *Per Capita figures are in metric tons of coal per person." Population, based on U.N. figures, is estimated to be "6,129,000,000" persons for the year 2000.
4.130 Source: World Prospects for Natural Resources, J. Fisher and N. Potter, (Baltimore, Maryland).
4.131 4) the more efficient and continual re-design of our environ facilities, and their prime mover energy converters, towards extraction of maximum performance per unit of energy invested.
4.132 The latter set of requirements may be the more pressing and the most accessible to immediate design solutions:
4.133 . . . quite small amounts of power could do a great deal of good. It is interesting to note that the old Dutch wind mills developed only about 2 horsepower apiece, and yet, a rela- tively small number of these, working steadily, reclaimed large areas of Holland from the sea. An Indian economist has indicated that for a village of 1000 persons, a power source of slightly more than 100 KW would suffice in the early stages of mechanization, and less than 10 per cent of this would be used for domestic purposes. By contrast, a single American household might require a power supply almost half this size to handle the daily peak loads.źš
4.134 We may also note in relation to the above that such relatively small power sources may supply energies which can play a key ’change’ role in giving power not only for augment- ing food production, etc., but for vital communications – radio, T. V. and small trans- mitters. In thinking about power for such regions, we often forget the range of power re- quired for various purposes, e.g., from a jet airplane at 30,000 horsepower and automo- bile at 100 horsepower, we go to a household refrigerator 1/2 horsepower, fluorescent lamp 1/20 horsepower and a transistor radio, only 1/1000 horsepower.
4.135 The key relation between a high energy industrial economy and population growth stability also suggests that we pursue the solution of immediately pressing problems such as population and food supply and distribution on as many levels as possible. Increasing food production in every possible way with the presently massive logistical support which we already use in war, increasing the rate of local industrialization at both small and large scale levels of deployment and concentration, education at all levels and in every type of skill and understanding appropriate to the necessary but abrupt social, cultural and econo- mic transition.
4.136 Power is now the key to expanding food production, as the most immediately pres- sing problem in the highly populated, less developed, regions. Their need is not merely the stop-gap aid of food surpluses or fertilizer shipments, but energy for transport, communi- cations and distribution facilities, for local fertilizer production, for industrialization and education.
4.137 The emergent countries with their dense populations living in small towns and villages need energy badly for light, for village industries, for the irrigation of crops and drainage and for the local processing of their harvest of sugar, cotton and jute. Energy for transport is also essential for their development. The solution of their energy problems should, therefore, be one of the first objectives of technical aid, if the gap between the developed and emergent countries is to be reduced.źş
4.138 źšPower for Remote Areas", H. Z. Tabor, International Science and Technology, May 1967, pp. 52-59.
4.139 źşSir Harold Hartley, F.R.S., "World Energy Prospects", World in 1984, Vol. I, ed. Nigel Calder, (Penguin Books, 1965).
4.140 Simple sharing of existing fuel supplies and industrial machinery would not be enough, however, to alleviate the present imbalance in living standards between such lesser developed regions and the industrial regions. To bring underdeveloped regions up to in- dustrial parity by building up their industires on the same pattern of fuel and major materials consumption which obtains in the developed industrial regions is not possible in present terms. In addition to the required extra energies, it is doubtful if the supply of major metals, for example, would suffice. Progressively lower grade metal ores are now having to be mined, e.g., 100 years ago copper ores used were not less than 10 per cent copper content, today the world average is 1.5 per cent. Even given that metals extracted are progressively recycled, the amount of metals per capita required, at present industrial use levels, would not be available to bring the other 60 per cent of the world’s people up to full industrialization.ź
4.141 In terms of the fuel energies necessary, this would entail an approximate 60 per cent rise per year, for example, in our overall use of fossil fuels. Even with our pro- jected reserves as presently known, continued population increase and concomitant energy use increases would amount to sharing such fuels for about a century or so until presently accessible reserves were exhausted. Though oil and natural gas potential deposits are known to be relatively more enormous than coal, the energies required in processing lower grade mineral ores would be greater as would the parallel demand for non-fuel uses of oils and gases.
4.142 Extrapolating present and projected rates of its use and given that industrialization is not so expanded, coal may not supply the world energy needs by the year 2000 level for more than 150-200 years. Proven oil and natural gas reserves are much greater than the extent of our present knowledge; oil reserve estimates are roughly forty times the world total consumption figures for 1960. Oil, shale and other sources increase estimates further. The ’extent of our knowledge’ is the critical factor in projecting such reserves and their utilization. We not only discover more deposits, but our knowledge of how to extract more energy from them also increases.
4.143 The existence of very large untapped oil fields on the continental shelves and delta lands of South East Asia, rivaling those in the Persian Gulf and Caribbean, has been noted in a recent paper:
4.144 Actually it has, by now, become obvious (1) that the world’s effective reserves of oil will run into trillions of barrels; (2) that a large part of these reserves exist in the shallow water and delta coastal-plain areas of the Western Pacific and of the Southeastern Asian nations; and that the develop- ment of these resources can be of immense benefit to hundreds of millions of people, pending the further ’break- through’ in connection with the harnessing and use of atomic and thermo-nuclear energies.ź
4.145 One may also speculate as to the relevance of such large scale oil sources (extend- ing as they do through South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Burma, Cambodia and
4.146 źHence the emphasis, in our present discussion, on increasing performance per unit of invested resources as the only possible way in which this can be done. In terms of industrial energies and materials the solution may only be sought through prior attention to such technological facts.
4.147 źMajor Oil and Gas Deposits of the World’s Coastal Lowlands and Continental Shelves – with special reference to those of the Western Pacific, (Unpublished paper, May 1967, W. Taylor Thom, Jr., F.W.A., President, American Institute of Geonomy and Natural Resource.
4.148 the two Viet Nam’s) with regard to the present power struggle being waged in this area. Unfortunately, there is as yet no world "resource authority" which might decide such con- flicting claims in terms of the real needs of the human community.
4.149 The point may still be stressed, however, that even with such reserves, both in resources and knowledge, we patently cannot continue our present energy policies with re- gard to such fuels generally. Apart from by-product effects and extravagant valuable de- posits in ’storage’, the petrochemicals and those which may be derived from natural gas are now the basis for innumerable different products, including the swiftly developing range of plastics. Recent advances in microbial research also suggest the bio-synthesis of food materials from such fossil fuel bases. Burning up potentially valuable construction materials, and an enormous food and medical supply reserve seems even more prodigal than when the oils and gases are considered solely as industrial fuel!
4.150 Resource and Use Diversification
4.151 Overshading all other considerations, then, in this regard is that of diversifying our overall world energy economy – of more swiftly developing our ’income’ energy sources on a massive scale, and of investigating new sources, means of storage, transmission and more efficient process use.ź
4.152 Hydro-electric power represents less than 10 per cent of the world’s energy con- sumption. Its potential and efficiency of generation are extremely advantageous, particu- larly as those regions which are poor in other indigenous fuel sources are often well situated to benefit from the use of locally untapped water power. This vast renewable energy resource is obtainable by ’tapping in’ to the hydro-cycle in combination with the earth gravitational field. Its only demerits for the lesser developed areas are the ’energy costs’ involved in large scale harnessing of such power – cost, in terms of trained man- power and material resources allocation, transportation, equipment, etc., all of which are in equally short supply in the emergent regions.
4.153 Though supplying less than a tenth of the world energy consumption total, its re- gional use as per cent of total contribution goes as high as 99 per cent in countries such as Norway, down to a low, 5 per cent, in countries such as the United States which are rich in other fuels.
4.154 With the level of transnational undertakings increasing, many large joint hydro- electrical schemes are planned or already underway. One, for example, due for comple- tion in 1970, as a joint venture between Rumania and Yugoslavia, is expected to meet more than 15 per cent of the energy needs of both countries. A number of such programs are presently underway around the world, e.g., the Aswan and Upper Volta dams in Africa. At the largest and most hopeful scale is that of the proposed uses of the Mekong River, "twelfth largest river in the world, 2,600 miles in overall length, draining in its lower basin an area larger than France, with a population (in the four countries of Cambodia,
4.155 źWe might underline here that the impetus toward this has already been emergency pressured by local ecological malfunction in the advanced regions. The amounts of aerial, water, soil pollution from current fuel uses now enforce these direc- tions. We might hope that the extension of such ecological regard for human health and survival may be extended to the whole planetary community.
4.156 78 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.157 POTENTIAL MARINE ENERGY SOURCES
4.158 Total Output for Nonrenewable Energy Sources Thorium Fission Uranium Fission Deuterium Fusion Hydrogen Fusion NONRENEWABLE 10 10ş 10š 10ź 1.0 10ź 10š 10ş 10 10 10 10 10 10 10ź 10źź 10źš 10źş Mw.
4.159 Solar Energy (Input) Thermopower Total Marine Organic Available Wind Power RENEWABLE Potential Hydropower Total Tidal Friction Feasible Tidal Power
4.160 Annual Output for Renewable Energy Sources
4.161 "...the sea harbors far more non-renewable energy than the land, in the form of the potential fusion energy of its hydrogen and deuterium. "The power demand of the world in 2000 has been projected as 14 million megawatts....the ultimate fission and fusion of energy content of the oceans is shown in terms of multiples of that anticipated annual demand. "Thorium and uranium fission could, in principle, supply this 1.4 x 10 MW for some 700,000 years, whereas deuterium and hydrogen fusion can supply it for times that are greater than the age of the solar system. Although terrestrial sources of fissionable materials are probably greater (and more economical) than the marine, the sea is clearly the predominant source of fusible deuterium and hydrogen. "Feasible tidal power can supply a tenth of one percent of the total need, but even the entire tidal dissipation in all the oceans of the world represents only ten percent of the total need." –Robert Colbarn, ed.
4.162 Source: "Earth Science and Oceanography," Robert Colbarn, ed., Modern Science & Technology, 1965. p. 622.
4.163 Laos, Vietnam and Thailand) of some 50 million people . . .(presently) less than 3 per cent of the lower basin is irrigated and almost no hydroelectric power is drawn from the river."17 Such world water power harnessed in projects of this scale could provide over ten times more energy than our present coal production. Europe has about 50 per cent of its estimat- ed hydro potential already in use, North America about 45 per cent, though Canada has considerable unused potential over this figure. Africa, for example, with the largest estimated potential, presently uses less than 1 per cent.
4.164 In terms of overall hydropower use, it has been calculated that about 13 per cent of the estimated potential is presently being developed. If all were developed, however, at present conversion and use rates, it would still not provide more than a part of the world’s annual fuel needs.
4.165 Tidal Power from many of the great river deltas and coastal bays is another power- ful hydro source as yet almost untouched. "At present, the only scheme to reach the con- struction stage is on the Rance estuary near St. Malo, France . . .planned to generate electricity equivalent to annual saving of 400,000 tons of coal."18 Wave power and the general use of the massive movements of water energy in the oceans we seem to have no direct ways of tapping at his time.
4.166 Geothermal Power, though used historically, in the form of hot springs and other features of recent surface volcanic activity, has been little exploited directly as a large scale energy source. In various areas of the earth the interior heat layers are close enough to the surface for drilled well tapping of steam and hot water fields. The technique is similar to oil and natural gas, but more advantageous in the degree of energy heat more immediately available. Recent pioneer development in the United States19 has a number of such ’wells’ operating. An additional important feature of these is their natural occurrence in relation to rich mineral resources, thus providing power for processing, e.g., potash fertilizer, one of our currently critical needs.
4.167 Wind Power has proven itself as an excellent ’income’ source of energy for centuries – and could be used more widely today, for generator conversion, where small quantities of electricity are required for various local purposes. Rapidly improving stor- age capacities may make this an excellent autonomous source for more remote areas of emerging regions. Many different ’aerogenerators’ have been developed experimentally and this is an area particularly suitable for pilot projects in our present program.20
4.168 Solar Energy development has received considerable attention in recent years as the world’s total energy balance sheet has become clarified and general agreement reached on the need to find alternative energy sources.
4.169 17U.N. Office of Information, November 1966. (N.B. Present conflict in this area will, no doubt, hold up this scheme considerably).
4.170 18Man and Energy, A. R. Ubbelohde, (Pelican Books, 1963), p. 68.
4.171 19Magma Power Co., (Los Angeles, California), reports vast deposits of steam, chemicals, minerals – at 380,000 parts/million and approximately 700-800 F. – corres- pondence: B. C. McCabe, President.
4.172 20"The Use of Income Energy", R. Buckminster Fuller, Prague 1967 Newsletter, World Design Science Decade, November 1966, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois
4.173 GROWTH OF NUCLEAR POWER
4.174 ESTIMATED GROWTH OF NUCLEAR CAPACITY AND GENERATION
4.175 Total net electricity generationź (1,000 million KWh) 1960 1970 1975 1980 North America 955 1,780 2,380 3,140 Europe 535 1,120 1,570 2,150 Japan 110 300 420 600 Total 1,600 3,200 4,370 5,890
4.176 Total output capacity (1,000 million KW) North America 192 375 500 650 Europe 131 290 400 540 Japan 23 65 90 130 Total 347 730 990 1,320
4.177 Nuclear output capacity (1,000 million KW) North America ... 7 30 90 Europe ... 10 40 90 Japan ... 1 5 10 Total ... 18 75 190
4.178 Annual nuclear generationš (1,000 million KWh) North America ... 50 210 630 Europe ... 70 280 630 Japan ... 5 35 70 Total ... 125 525 1,300
4.179 Oil equivalent of nuclear heat released (in millions of tons) ... 31 120 305
4.180 źThese figures do not include power stations’ own consumption.
4.181 šAssuming an average annual utilization of 7,000 hours.
4.182 Source: Energy Policy: Problems & Objective, Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, 1966, p. 61.
4.183 The annual earth receipt from solar radiation is, "about 35,000 times the present yearly energy consumption . . . one ten thousandth (of this) converted directly into power would increase world energy production by about 250 per cent.21
4.184 One acre of the earth’s surface receives energy at the rate of about 6,000 horsepower on a clear sunny day. Such conditions vary, of course, around the earth – but, as one writer has observed, that if we speak of nuclear reactors, ’we should also consider a vast reactor located safely 93 million miles from the earth in space – the sun.’22
4.185 The problems in the use of solar radiation are obvious; intermittency, low density difficulties in storage, conversion, etc. But many of these have been overcome technically and various types of radiation concentration devices have already been proven in direct use of the sun’s rays for cooking, cooling, etc. Cooling is also an important and obvious factor as areas where the sun is most plentiful and constant are those in need of coolants – a key consideration when the use of solar energy is identified most often with the lesser developed areas, e.g., India23. Solar water heating has been in use for a long time and a number of ’solar’ houses utilizing direct and indirectly channelled energies have been built. Many of these intermittent, but plentiful income sources of sun and wind power await only more efficient storage for their wide applicability for many of the smaller scale energy tasks.
4.186 The most promising overall area of development, and use, is in aerospace work. The solar cell converting sunlight directly into electrical energy has made possible much of the space exploratory data collected so far. One system of almost 30,000 cells covering 70 square feet, powered all instruments including cameras and other recorders in a satellite track lasting seven months and covering 325 million miles. Such units in the near future may, therefore, be powering the entire satellite-routed global telecommunications system already partially in operation!
4.187 N.B. With all of the above ancillary power sources, we still need energies of sufficient high density of concentration, possible speed of installation, conversion, and of a ’continuous’ character which might obviate present storage and transmission barriers. Nuclear energy appears to satisfy many of these urgent conditions. The forecasts of the ’Geneva Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy’ in 1955, regarding the technical and economic feasibility of its employment, have been considerably fulfilled.
4.188 Nuclear Power has been much emphasized as the fuel source for the future. As we have noted though, this is presently based mainly on the uranium ores in the earth, so it could be termed a ’capital’ energy use. But, theoretically, as both fission and fusion processes may be extended to a wide range of elements, nuclear power comes closer to being an income source utilizing a wide range of materials. As one pound of fissionable uranium is equivalent in energy to 650 tons of coal, it affords a performance many hundreds of times greater than equivalent fossil fuel use. Linked also, by its nature, to most advanced technology, ancillary gains via this field may be considerable in the use of radiation ener-
4.189 21"World Patterns of Energy Production", E. W. Miller, Journal of Geography, U. S., September, 1959, p. 277.
4.190 22"Power Equals Power", Xerox Pioneer (U.S.), Fall 1965.
4.191 23A solar refrigerator unit has already been prototyped by one student group in the WDSD program, as part of their work in this phase, Nottingham School of Architecture, (U.K.), 1966-67.
4.192 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6
4.193 WORLD NUCLEAR POWER
4.194 WORLD PRODUCERS OF NUCLEAR POWER IN 1965 Location by country Total power in M.W.* No. of stations United Kingdom 7006 11 United States 5382 23 France 1580 6 USSR 877 5 Italy 620 3 India 580 2 W. Germany 324 4 Canada 220 2 Belgium 200 1 Spain 153 1 Japan 150 1 Czechoslovakia 150 1 Sweden 148 2 E. Germany 70 1 Netherlands 48 1 Norway 20 1 Switzerland 7 1 Greenland 2 1 TOTAL 17,537 67
4.195 CUMULATIVE GROWTH OF NUCLEAR POWER IN U.S.A. [Bar chart with x-axis labeled 1956 58 60 62 64 66 68 1970 and y-axis labeled "Net capacity in millions of kilowatts" from 0 to 4.0]
4.196 *Estimates vary according to sources. These include nuclear power plants operating or under construction. One megawatt (M.W.) = 1 million watts = 1,000 kilo watts (K.W.).
4.197 "There are only 3 commercial nuclear power stations in the whole of Asia, 2 in India and 1 in Japan. A site for a third Indian station has just been chosen, near Madras.
4.198 The U.S.A. and U.K. are the main suppliers of commercial reactor units to other countries. So far U.S. manufacturers have obtained 8 contracts and U.K. 3." - Dr. Peter R. Mounfield
4.199 Sources: (1) "Nuclear Power in the World Today," Peter R. Mounfield, (notes from lecture given at S.I.U. May 9, 1967). pp. 4-5. (2) "Environment Contamination from Nuclear Reactors," Malcolm L. Peterson, Science & Citizen, November 1965. p. 1.
4.200 gies in medicine, agriculture, etc. Part of its present limitation lies in manner of use, i.e., to produce steam, and thence to electrical generation, rather than directly producing electricity. Despite these developmental limitations, nuclear reactor installation and successful economic operation has increased considerably.
4.201 It’s advantages for the underdeveloped regions of the world have been succinctly stated by one distinguished engineer:
4.202 It can function anywhere. It is independent of geography, climate and the general cultural level of the inhabitants. Upkeep is minimal . . . Needed amounts of nuclear fuel are easily transported, and the consumed weight is negligible. Operation is automatic and can be managed by a limited personnel. And because initial costs are high (and nuclear fuels are and will remain govern- ment property), installations will continue to be plan- ned and financed by national or multi-national agencies. They can therefore be placed where they are needed.š
4.203 This author also draws attention to the facts that the nuclear revolution – of dis- persed autonomous power centers as well as those providing large concentrations of power – would be a less difficult transition for developing peoples than the introduction of traditional fossil fuel based industries . . . "Where the airplane is supplanting the bullock cart or dog- sled, where radio (and television) directly superseded the village drum for communications, and where manufacturing goes from handicrafts all the way to automation without having to pass through the states symbolized by the steam railway and the assembly line."š
4.204 As we shall later discuss, the more easeful, swifter and reasonable patter of such development may be via nuclear energy, plastics and electronics – rather than coal, steel and steam! Experience has shown that even if a research reactor initially appears to be a drain on a country’s resources, it stimulates overall scientific and technical development in a variety of fields and assists materially in aiding economic and technological take off.
4.205 The advantages of nuclear power, particularly, lie in their independence of geog- raphy; due to the compact and ’long duration’ fuel source, plants may be built for use far from the sources of fuels, and located autonomously without need for ’continuous’ fuel in- puts. Portable nuclear reactors have already been constructed for military use. One such type, reported in 1966, weighed less than 15 tons, produced more than 400 kilowatts and could be transported in an ordinary truck.
4.206 Though as compared with present fossil use, it is a ’clean’ power source, the dis- posal of radioactive wastes has been and remains a problem – the emergence of nuclear power as a ’competitive’ source in the advanced regions will, however, probably accelerate solutions to this. Recovered wastes from uranium fission have also been used in other types of power plants specifically designed for use in remote areas, e.g., in space and for
4.207 š"The Impact of the Nuclear Age", Boris Pregel, America Faces the Nuclear Age, (Sheridan House, New York, 1961), pp. 28-29.
4.208 šIbid.
4.209 unattended Arctic Weather Stations. The use of such radio-nuclide fuels leads into other types of more direct energy conversion – thermo-electro and thermionic devices. Fission wastes may then be "viewed as a prime source of such radioisotope fuels . . .(and) the anticipated problem of waste storage may be alleviated if this source of useful energy can be exploited and some of these wastes converted into fuels"26
4.210 Energy Conversion Efficiency
4.211 The efficiency with which energy is converted in various processes is a crucial aspect of the overall energy picture. Present world efficiency is suggested as attaining only about six to eight per cent – at best up to 20 per cent27 – when we deduct friction, heat, engine wear and malfunction, poor fuel oxidation, losses in transmission, over-weight in loads as presently designed (e.g., as in household uses), wastage in non-use ’idling’ periods, etc.
4.212 A great deal may, therefore, be accomplished by increasing our overall energy conversion efficiency. More rigorous systems design of present uses could more than double the performance per unit of energy invested in many areas.
4.213 The automobile is a particularly inefficient example: of the energy in crude oil, 87 per cent remains after refining; 3 per cent is used in transport to consumer; 25 per cent is converted to work in the engine, but only 30 per cent of this is transmitted to the road (after losses to friction and auto auxiliaries) and further decreases occur through gears and tires. The overall efficiency of the automobile is about 5 per cent – though air drag, braking and idling reduces this in actual operation.
4.214 Other engines represent higher work efficiencies, on paper, but closer calculation would probably reveal similar types of loss of energy, even if considerably less than the auto. An interesting example here would be to calculate the duplication and overall loss of energy efficiencies in the average ’appliance-equipped’ house, as often operating cooling, heating, cooking, lighting, from separately functioning, and different, fuel sources.
4.215 A useful case of specific energy efficiency gains may be elicited from a recent transportation study.
4.216 In 1950, Soviet railroads carried just over 600 billion ton-kilometers of freight traffic and appeared to be straining the upper limit of the possible in doing this. Fifteen years later, they carried more than three times as much traffic with only a modest increase in route mileage, very little rise in the operating labor force and no increase at all in the number of locomotives.28
4.217 26"Energy for Remote Areas", J. G. Morse, Science (U.S.), Vol. 139, No. 3560, March 1963, p. 1175.
4.218 27"The World Power Conference of 1964", article on main theme of World Power Conference, London 1964, The Times, London, September 9, 1964.
4.219 28Soviet Transport Experience: Its Lessons for Other Countries, Holland Hunter, (Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institute, October 1966).
4.220 Energy 85
4.221 ENERGY CONVERSION EFFICIENCIES
4.222 A. PROGRESS IN EFFICIENCY OF STEAM-ENGINES
4.223 year engine fuel consumption (kg/kWh) 1698 Savery..................... 1712 Newcomen................... 1770 Watt....................... 1796 Watt....................... 1830 Cornish Engines............ 1846 Cornish Engines............ 1890 Triple Expansion........... 1910 Parsons Turbine............ 1950 Steam Turbine.............. 1950 Hot-air Turbine............ 1955 Steam Turbine..............
4.224 efficiency in % 0 10 20 30 40
4.225 A. "The left-hand side of the diagram gives the efficiencies, the right-hand side the fuel consumption, which is inversely proportional to the efficiency."– H. Thirring
4.226 B. OTHER ENGINE EFFICIENCIES
4.227 engine type efficiency in % Steam Locomotive......................... 7 Automobile Engine........................ 12 Ram Jet (at 1,300 m.p.h.)................ 21 Reciprocating Aero Engine................ 23 Turbo Jet (at 40,000 ft.)................ 24 Gas (general)............................ 30 Diesel Locomotive........................ 35 Steam Turbines........................... 40 Fuel Cells (potential)................... 80 Hydro-elective Turbine................... 90
4.228 Sources: (A) Energy In Man, Hans Thirring, (New York, Harper & Row), 1962. p. 54. (B) Document 4, The Ten Year Program, John McHale, (Illinois: World Re- sources Inventory), 1965. p. 53.
4.229 As the study further indicates, this was accomplished by switching from steam to diesel and diesel-electric locomotives, which are more continuously available for work, require less servicing for longer distances, etc. The same gains in efficiency might be adduced for diesel electrification of other national railway systems, but the above example shows the swiftest gain over time – which is of critical importance to our central theme.
4.230 The division of energies between their various uses – in industrial production, transport, communications, distribution, etc., – is presently difficult to assess accurately in world terms. In the United States, transportation via trucks, automobiles and trains has been calculated to require four times the amount of fuel than that required for electrical power generation. In more recent years, with the rapid expansion of air transport, this may be many times higher, e.g., 1966 figures give an estimate of 11,000š airplanes in the United States air-space in any twenty-four hour period. The general rise of air transport using large quantities of fuel is an obvious factor in our overall energy use increase. This is offset, partially, by the more precise attention to higher fuel use efficiencies in such advanced technological instruments and their extraction of the highest performance-per-unit-invested, versus weight of equipment, cargo, etc.
4.231 When we consider only single engine efficiencies, however, the inherent re-designing possibilities are obscured. Such engines only operate within, and as functional components of larger systems complexes. Possibly, for environ planners, the urban city complex may be a better starting point. We have elsewhere commented that few overall energy budgets are prepared for building, e.g., for dismantling as well as construction. Few detailed energy systems analyses have been applied to urban and other human ecological aggregates, in terms of their overall energy metabolism. Present attention to the malfunction of the auto in cities could be fruitfully extended to lighting, heating, household and public energy uses, including sewage and waste disposal systems, etc. Industry, though wasteful of energy in the strict sense, is extremely efficient when compared, even casually, with the average energy systems management of our urban complexes.
4.232 Electrical power generation is probably one of the sectors of industrial energy conversion which has shown most continuous improvement and capacity to switch flexibly from one type of generating fuel conversion to another. Notable in recent years has been the introduction of nuclear powered generating plants with their highly favourable ratio of fuel input to energy generated.
4.233 A recent report from French engineersş suggests that we may now design a generator substation at one tenth the size of the present type of unit. This possibility of ’miniaturizing’ the substations, which are an essential feature of power distribution networks, is accompanied by the additional possibility of extending present transmission radii through ultra-high voltage – carrying power over longer lines with less loss.
4.234 Ultra High Voltage transmission with ’miniaturized’ substations could span enormous areas of the earth and bring electrical power within reach of the energy-poor nations. Many European countries are already running such lines up to 600 miles. The United States and Canada are also concerned with this possibility in transmitting power across sparsely settled plains and mountain areas; "the U.S.S.R. is experimenting with high voltage D.C.
4.235 šLife, Vol. 60, No. 15, April, 15, 1966. p. 40.
4.236 ş"Shrinking the Power Centers", New Scientist, (U.K.), June 16, 1966.
4.237 Energy
4.238 Income Energies Continuous or renewable energy receipts of light, heat, gravity, cosmic rays, etc.
4.239 Stellar Energy Sources Chiefly Solar
4.240 Capital Energies Exhaustible or unrenewable energy sources stored over extended periods of time.
4.241 Energy Conversion (naturally occurring)
4.242 Indirect Inanimate Molecular movement (temperature differences between atmosphere, earth & ocean), geothermal heat & tidal forces.
4.243 Indirect Animate Photosynthesis, microbial energy conversion.
4.244 Direct Photo-Chemical, Photo-electrical, Thermo-electrical.
4.245 Energy Conversion (human agencies)
4.246 Sails, waterwheels, wind generators, electric generators, drying processes, thermal steam and tidal power conversion facilities
4.247 Food, human labor, draft animals, fermentation & alcohol extraction from vegetation, wood fuels, dung, etc. controlled action in agri-industrial processes.
4.248 Heat and electrical energy yielded through electro-chemical reactions & optical concentrations of light, etc.
4.249 Fossil Fuels Coal, petroleum, natural gas, shale oil, tar sands, etc.
4.250 Fissile Fuels Radioactive fissionable elements.
4.251 Bio-geochemical Cycling minerals such as nitrates, phosphates, etc.
4.252 Heat and electrical energy yielded through combustion in various chemical processes and mechanisms
4.253 Heat and electrical energy yielded through acceleration of atoms in combination electro-mechanical systems.
4.254 Heat yielded through chemical reactions, etc.
4.255 DEVELOPING ENERGY SYSTEMS
4.256 Controlled thermonuclear fusion Fast breeder reactors Magneto-hydrodynamic generators. (MHD) Thermionics Thermo-electricity Direct conversion of solar energy Shale-oil & tar-sands Coal liquification & gasification Fuel cells & bio-chemical energy Aerogenerators Geothermal energy Tidal energy
4.257 EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION FACILITY DEVELOPMENT
4.258 Hydro-Power Surface water to reservoirs
4.259 Coal Strip & shaft mining Pulverizing, grading, oil
4.260 Natural gas Deep drilling & pumping etc.
4.261 Petroleum Deep drilling, pumping etc. Refined chemicals
4.262 Fissile fuels Surface mining Uranium Nuclear fuels
4.263 Adapted from
4.264 Energy Conversion (naturally occurring)
4.265 Indirect Inanimate Molecular movement (temperature differences between atmosphere, earth & ocean), geothermal heat & tidal forces.
4.266 Indirect Animate Photosynthesis, microbial energy conversion.
4.267 Direct Photo-Chemical, Photo-electrical, Thermo-electrical.
4.268 Energy Conversion (human agencies)
4.269 Sails, waterwheels, wind generators electric generators, drying processes thermal steam and tidal power conversion facilities
4.270 Food, human labor, draft animals, fermentation & alcohol extraction from vegetables wood fuels, dung, etc. controlled manipulation in agri-industrial processes.
4.271 Heat and electrical energy yielded through electro-chemical reactions & optical transformations of light, etc.
4.272 Stellar Energy Sources Chiefly Solar
4.273 Income Energies Continuous or renewable energy receipts of light, heat, gravity, cosmic rays, etc.
4.274 Capital Energies Exhaustible or unrenewable energy sources stored over extended periods of time.
4.275 Fossil Fuels Coal, petroleum, natural gas, shale oil, tar sands, etc.
4.276 Fissile Fuels Radioactive fissionable elements.
4.277 Bio-geochemical Cycling minerals such as nitrates, phosphates, etc.
4.278 Heat and electrical energy yielded through combustion in various chemical processes
4.279 Heat and electrical energy yielded through acceleration of atoms in combination electro-mechanical systems.
4.280 Heat yielded through chemical reactions etc.
4.281 DEVELOPING ENERGY SYSTEMS
4.282 Controlled thermonuclear fusion Fast breeder reactors Magneto-hydrodynamic generators. (MHD) Thermionics Thermo-electricity Direct conversion of solar energy Shale-oil & tar-sands Coal liquification & gasification Fuel cells & bio-chemical energy Aerogenerators Geothermal energy Tidal energy
4.283 EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION FACILITY DEVELOPMENT
4.284 Hydro-Power Surface water to reservoirs Coal Strip & shaft mining Pulverizing, grading, oil Natural gas Deep drilling & pumping etc. Petroleum Deep drilling, pumping etc. Refined chemicals Fissile fuels Surface mining Uranium Nuclear fuel
4.285 Adapted from
4.286 Merits Winds, temperature differences geothermal heat etc. are con- tinuous & have few inherent pollutients
4.287 Demerits Difficulty of controls, periodic surges, geographic disproportion etc.
4.288 Human Utilization Cooling food, preserving food, cooking food, space heating, space cooling, pumping water, air & gasses, motive power, lighting, communications, industrial heating, conversion and forming of mater- ials, etc.
4.289 Self regenerating systems. Microbial action may be used in waste reclamation cycle.
4.290 Large volumes of heat energy dissipated in direct metabolic processes.
4.291 Direct energy transfer, may be stored bio-chemically or electro-chemically but on a relatively small scale.
4.292 Presently not capable of econom- ic application on wide scale or large volume range.
4.293 May be stored, transported and controlled with ease and in large volumes.
4.294 Excess waste heat, gasses & pol- lutents effect biogeochemical processes.
4.295 Independent of geography, min- imal upkeep, by-product wastes may be used as other fuels.
4.296 Large investment in shealding and fuel refinement, disposal of radioactive waste is a present key problem.
4.297 May be stored, controlled, and used as fertilizers in other food energy processes etc.
4.298 Used in explosives etc. Primar- ily destructive energy use.
4.299 PROVEN ENERGY SYSTEMS
4.300 Transportation Facilities
4.301 Conversion Facilities
4.302 Transmission Facilities
4.303 Storage Facilities
4.304 Energy Delivered to Consumer
4.305 Hydro-electric turbine gener- ators
4.306 Electrical networks
4.307 Electricity for heat, light and electro-mechani- cal systems etc.
4.308 Ship, rail, road, etc.
4.309 Steam turbine generators
4.310 Pipe line systems
4.311 Gas from coal & petroleum
4.312 Bulk storage in various forms
4.313 Heat for proces- sing space heat- ing & transporta- tion
4.314 Petroleum from coal
4.315 Ship, rail, road & pipe line systems
4.316 Ship, rail, road, etc.
4.317 Reactor & turbine gen- erator
4.318 Electrical networks
4.319 Electricity for heat light and electromechani- cal systems etc.
4.320 1) "The Nature and Sources of Energy," Zimmerman, 2) Energy R. & D. and National Progress, Inter Introduction to World Resources. p. 68. Dept. Energy Study, Washington D.C.,1964. p.40.
4.321 current as part of its plans to transmit power all the way from Siberia to industrial areas in Western Russia."31 If across Russia, then feasibly from Europe to India or to Africa! The tendency for power networks is to seek the largest interconnectibility for maximal sharing of differential loads at varying peak periods.32
4.322 In addition to the projection of large scale technological projects of industrialization for the developing countries, e.g., hydro-electric and nuclear power generation, etc., it should be borne in mind that:
4.323 1. Electrical power ’storage’ on a large scale is not yet feasible; power must be generated and used within a given transmission grid and large amounts can be efficiently used only if the industrial system is there to use it. Increasing capacities in long distance transmission of electrical power, mentioned above, offset this economic dependence on locally available industrial use, but the point is an important one.
4.324 2. Both ends of the power scale must be kept in proportion. The desired results of eventual large scale industrial advantage can also be aided considerably by the more immediate and plentiful supply of small and medium scale generators and plants. These can supply power for increasing food yields through irrigation, etc., community utilities, and production facilities of many types. Importantly, also, they can be a key ’orientation’ agency in speeding the transition from an agriculturally based society to an industrially based one.
4.325 An earlier source33 cited provides a useful typology for the power needs of remote underdeveloped areas as follows:
4.326 Group 1 – Units delivering a fraction of a watt up to several watts, such as power supplies having roughly the capability of a standard flashlight battery and slightly larger, can run radios, transistorized T. V. receivers and small transmitters – providing news, education, entertainment as well as vital communication linkage where telephones and other units are not available.
4.327 Group 2 – Units from several watts up to one kilowatt, with the capability of an automobile battery, might be used for a microwave relay station, for refrigeration, and for larger communications apparatus.
4.328 Group 3 – Units comparable to the power of a gasoline lawn mower engine or larger, providing power for the pumping of water and other agricultural and productive purposes.
4.329 31"Cheaper Power Through Higher Voltages," K. Hamill, Fortune, June 1959.
4.330 32"Geosocial Revolution", R. B. Fuller, (Document 3 in the present series, 1965), contains specific discussion of this topic.
4.331 33Power for Remote Areas, H.Z. Tabor, International Science and Technology, May 1967. (N.B. see also: Direct Use of the Sun’s Energy, ? Daniels, (Yale Univ. Press, 1964), Power from the Wind, A. Putnam, (Van Nostrand Co. 1948), Solar Energy Quarterly, Arizona State University, United States.
4.332 This source further stresses the possible uses of income energies of wind and sun used in three classes of devices – wind generators, photo voltaic cells and thermal engines converting heat (including solar heat) to electrical or mechanical power. The U.N. has also recently issued a 215 page study handbook to this area of autonomous small scale generation of power for the underdeveloped regions.34
4.333 In general, we have to avoid the stereotypes of development, e.g., that lesser developed regions must necessarily follow the growth patterns of the present high energy regions. The simple biological parallel of ’ontogeny recapitulating phylogeny’ may have no real relevance to such development. There are various stages of development, obviously, but we may already observe the reality of emerging countries moving into industrial era forms without retracing the earlier stage developments of the advanced regions. Reference is usually made here to cultural barriers, but electric light, cinema, telephone, transistor and television could not have been more eagerly adopted wherever they have been made available – even in the most traditionally oriented societies. We may note that there appear to be no social and cultural barriers in the transfer of advanced military technologies.
4.334 The most pragmatic attitude towards the re-design of development is a ’both/and’ one – rather than strict evaluation in either/or terms. The presently advanced countries are characterized by the plurality and variable scale of their energy production and consumption systems. The process of development should also share this plural approach. There are no fixed rules which must be followed – other than those of speed, urgency and that the most immediate advantage be gauged within a framework of future consequences and contingencies.
4.335 There is, for example, the growing trend toward a shared pool of the large scale world technological instruments, even where this is masked by local ’brain drains’ and the balance of competitive markets. Advanced global services go increasingly beyond the capacity of even the most powerful countries to wholly sustain and operate – satellites, telecommunicating, world airlines, large scale energy generation and distribution systems, etc. No country has all the necessary resources to develop these entirely alone; few manufacture all the items necessary for their maintenance. They are, by their nature, systems which operate most efficiently in the service of the largest possible numbers of ’customers’.
4.336 We may question, therefore, the often assumed need in the developing process for the prior build up and duplication of ’heavy industry’ in national units. In some, by reason of size, it is obviously impractical, in others, it may be due to ’prestige’ need rather than actual operative value. This may also apply to large scale energy production. Rather than wait for the build up of specifically national industrial bases, we may need to go further ahead with both variable scale, locally autonomous, energy generation and large scale regional generation and distribution. Recent developments in ultra-high voltage transmission also suggest that we may increasingly extend our present transmission of energy from concentration in the high energy areas to those lacking in energy.
4.337 Generally, we need to assume that no matter what the artificial constraints may be – those which are customarily put forward such as exchange economics, balance of payments, etc. – we can no longer afford the disparity between the energy rich and the energy poor regions of the world. The present costs in global tensions are already great – the future costs are likely to be ecologically enormous.
4.338 34Small Scale Power Generation, U.N., pub. 1967, II. B.7.
4.339 READINGS LIST ENERGY
4.340 America Faces the Nuclear Age. J.E. Fairchild and D. Landman(ed.) Sheridan House New York, 1961.
4.341 Applied Solar Energy Research. (A directory of World Activities and Bibliography of Significant Literature) J.S. Jensen(ed.) University of Arizona, 1959.
4.342 A Chronological History of Electrical Development. E.S. Lincoln (ed.) New York, 1946.
4.343 Direct Energy Conversion. Sutton. McGraw-Hill. 1966.
4.344 The Economics of Atomic Power. Sam H. Schurr. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist. Jan.1965.
4.345 Economic Aspects of Atomic Power. Schurr and Marschak. Cowles Commission for Research in Economics by Princeton University., 1950.
4.346 Electricity Without Dynamos. J.W.Gardner. Pelican Books, Inc. 1964.
4.347 Energy for Man. Hans Thirring. Indiana University Press, 1958.
4.348 Energy: Its Production, Conversion and Use on the Service of Man. Philip Sporn. Peragamon Press. New York, 1963.
4.349 Energy in the Future. P.C. Putman. D. Van Nostrand Co. New York, 1953.
4.350 Energy Research and Development and National Progress. Supt. of Documents, U.S. Govt. Printing Office. Wash. D.C.
4.351 Energy Resources of the World. U.S. Govt. Printing Office. Wash. D.C. 1949.
4.352 Energy Resources. (A report to the Committee on Natural Resources of the National Academy of Sciences) M. Hubbert. Washington D.C. 1962. National Acad. of Sciences.
4.353 Energy Life and Animal Organization, J. A. Riegel. English Univ. Press. London.
4.354 Energy Policy- (problems and objectives) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris, 1966.
4.355 Energy Research and Resources of the World. N.B.Guyol. Department of State Publ. 3428, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Wash. D.C. 1949.
4.356 Energy. Sam H. Schurr. Scientific American, September 1963.
4.357 Energy and Society. Fred Cottrell. McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc. 1955.
4.358 Energy Sources- The Wealth of the World. E. Ayers and C. Scarlott. McGraw- Hill Book Company, Inc., 1952.
4.359 A History of Civil Engineering. Hans Straub. M.I.T. Press. Cambridge, Mass. 1964.
4.360 Home Generation of Power by Photovoltaic Conversion of Solar Energy. J. F. Elliott. Electrical Engineering, IXXC, No. 9, September 1960.
4.361 How Many Energy Slaves Can a Nation Maintain? Prof. A. R. Ubbelohde. New Scientist. September 9, 1965.
4.362 Longer Range View of Nuclear Energy. Weinberg and Wigner. Atomic Science, Vol. XVI No. 10. ( Bulletin)
4.363 Maximum Plausible Energy Contributions from Wind Power. Palmer C. Putnam. Solar Energy Research, University of Wisconsin Press, 1955.
4.364 New Frontiers for Energy. Power, July 1966.
4.365 Panel Heating in Polar Buildings. J. M. Stephenson. Air Conditioning, Heating and Vent- ilation, LIX, No. 6. June 1962.
4.366 Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy. Vol. 1. United Nations. New York, 1956.
4.367 Power from the Wind. P. C. Putnam. Van Nostrand, New York, 1948.
4.368 Power- Today and Tomorrow. Sources of Energy- Chapt. 1. F. Sherwood Taylor. Frederick Muller Ltd., London, 1954.
4.369 Proceedings of the International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy. United Nations, New York, 1965. Vol. 1 ( Geneva, 1955)
4.370 Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy. United Nations. New York, 1965. Vol. 1.
4.371 Social Implications of the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. O. Klineberg (ed.)
4.372 Solar Energy Research. Daniels, Farrington and John A. Duffie, (eds.) University of Wisconsin Press, 1955.
4.373 Solar Power Plants. M. L. Ghai. Solar Energy Research. Univ. of Wisconsin Press 1955.
4.374 Statistical Year Book of the World Power Conference. No.9. Fredrick Brown (ed.) Lund, Humphries and Con, Ltd. London, 1960.
4.375 Technology and Social Change. Eli Ginsburg (ed.) Columbia University Press, 1964.
4.376 Tidal Power and the Severn Barrage. H. Headland. Proceedings of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, Vol. 96, Part 2, June, 1959.
4.377 Towards Power Generation by MHD. New Scientist. No. 365. Nov. 14, 1963.
4.378 World Fuel Picture for 1980. New Scientist. August 4, 1966.
4.379 World Energy Supplies. 1957-1960. United Nations. Ser. J. No. 5. New York 1962.
4.380 World Energy Supplies. Statistical Papers Series J. No. 9 1961-1964. United Nations 1966.