4 Materials

4   Materials

5.1Materials 92

5.2 In considering industrial resources, we may again approach these most usefully from the ecological viewpoint. Though our main emphasis will be on industrial materials, this is an aspect of the global ecology which has only recently come within more generalized review. The processes of metals and minerals extraction, distribution, use and circulation in the world industrial networks are now a major subsystem of the biosphere.

5.3 As these industrial process cycles begin to approach those naturally occurring in the environ, both in complexity and magnitude of ecological effect, we have been able to identify more clearly the ’organic’ nature of our physical technologies and their evolving patterns of growth. We may, with some conceptual accuracy, refer to the phenomena of industrialization as the externalization of our metabolic systems – as now operable at a global scale in extracting, digesting and circulating the various major ingredients necessary to the sustenance of our extended human systems operation. We might more fruitfully examine the progressive extractions, flows and recyclings of such materials in terms of overall ’metabolic’ or ecological efficiency rather than confine ourselves within the customary economic, fiscal and trade terms.

5.4 The flow of industrial materials and technologies is now as essential to the ecological maintenance of the whole human community as the ’natural’ flows and cycles of air, water and light energy. Our present modes of conceptualizing the operation of the industrial eco-networks relate more to a pre-industrial past than to the realities of a critically interdependent global system – whose advanced facilities may only be produced by drawing upon the full array of world resources and only function efficiently when extended to the service of the greatest numbers of men. We still operate large sectors of this system in terms of the restrictive barter practices of local agriculturally-based societies in marginal survival relations to their environs. Such obsolete modes of accounting and control now clog the efficient operation of the global industrial ecology. They may be as dangerous to its forward and ’healthful’ maintenance as glandular malfunction in the internal human metabolism or large scale pollution in the overall ecology.

5.5 When we focus upon the historical development of materials, the importance of conceptual orientation becomes clearer. Most of the industrial resources presently in use were not even ’conceptually’ recognized as such a hundred years ago. Aluminum was a scarce metallic curiosity, radioactivity a laboratory phenomena and many of our present key metals were regarded as ’waste’ impurities in other ores. Our material resources and capacities are dependent on the way we view our environment – they are ultimately as we conceive them to be!

5.6 We refer to industrial raw materials as those generally found in the earth crust – the ten mile thick shell of geologically formed deposits of metallic and non-metallic ores which we may regard as accessible to extraction and processing within our present technologies. Additional to these crust materials are the elements of the atmosphere and ocean also used in the industrial process. Eight elements make up 98.6 per cent of the earth crust:

5.7 Oxygen 46.6 percent Cadmium 3.6 percent Silicon 27.7 percent Sodium 2.8 percent Aluminum 8.1 percent Potassium 2.6 percent Iron 5.0 percent Magnesium 2.1 percent

5.8 93 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.9 RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF METALS

5.10 RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF METALS IN THE EARTH (present in more than .0009 parts per million)

5.11 P.P.M SILICON 277,200 ALUMINUM 81,300 IRON 50,000 CALCIUM 36,300 SODIUM 28,300 POTASSIUM 25,900 MAGNESIUM 20,900 TITANIUM 4,400 MANGANESE 1,000 RUBIDIUM 310 STRONTIUM 300 BARIUM 250 ZIRCONIUM 220 CHROMIUM 200 VANADIUM 150 ZINC 132 NICKEL 80 COPPER 70 TUNGSTEN 69 LITHIUM 65 CERIUM 46 TIN 40 YTTRIUM 28

5.12 P.P.M COLUMBIUM 24 NEODYMIUM 24 COBALT 23 LANTHANIUM 18 LEAD 16 GALLIUM 15 MOLYBDENUM 15 THORIUM 12 CESIUM 7 GERMANIUM 7 SAMARIUM 6.5 GADOLINIUM 6.4 BERYLLIUM 6 PRAESODYMIUM 5.5 ARSENIC 5 SCANDIUM 5 DYSPROSIUM 4.5 HAFNIUM 4.5 URANIUM 4 BORON 3 YTTERBIUM 2.7 ERBIUM 2.5 TANTALUM 2.1

5.13 P.P.M HOLMIUM 1.2 EUROPIUM 1.1 ANTIMONY 1 TERBIUM 0.9 LUTETIUM 0.8 THALLIUM 0.6 MERCURY 0.5 BISMUTH 0.2 THULIUM 0.2 CADMIUM 0.15 INDIUM 0.1 SILVER 0.1 SELENIUM 0.09 PALLADIUM 0.01 GOLD 0.005 PLATINUM 0.005 TELLURIUM 0.002 IRIDIUM 0.001 OSMIUM 0.001 RHENIUM 0.001 RHODIUM 0.001 RUTHENIUM 0.001

5.14 RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF METALS IN THE SEA WATER (present in more than .0015 parts per million)

5.15 P.P.M SODIUM 10,561 MAGNESIUM 1,272 CALCIUM 400 POTASSIUM 380 STRONTIUM 13 BORON 4.6 SILICON 4.0

5.16 P.P.M ALUMINUM 1.9 RUBIDIUM 0.2 LITHIUM 0.1 COPPER 0.09 BARIUM 0.05 ARSENIC 0.024 IRON 0.02 ZINC 0.014

5.17 P.P.M MANGANESE 0.01 LEAD 0.005 SELENIUM 0.004 TIN 0.003 CESIUM 0.002 MOLYBDENUM 0.002 URANIUM 0.0016

5.18 Adapted from: "Metals and Mineral Processing–How Metals are Recovered," Marshall F. Sittig, Engineering & Mineral Journal, June 1958

5.19 Materials 94

5.20 Other materials of present importance occur in lesser percentages, e.g.,

5.21 Nickel 0.02 per cent Tungsten 0.005 per cent Tin 0.0004 per cent

5.22 The major concentrated deposits of these resources are inequably distributed around the earth with little relevance to natural boundaries and ’natural’ ownerships. This has been an important factor in the location of industries, the growth of the ’advanced’ nations and the present disparities in living standards.

5.23 Until about two hundred years ago, the numbers of known metals were quite small and the scale of their use comparatively insignificant in our present terms. There were the noble metals of gold and silver, and the base working metals such as iron, copper, lead and tin; mercury was known but little used. The main alloys were brass and bronze, but their precise combinations of copper, tin, zinc and antimony were not clearly understood until the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries.

5.24 The industrial revolutions of the Nineteenth Century began the production of metals on an abruptly larger scale than at any other previous period. In the first quarter of the Twentieth Century more metal of every type was extracted and processed than in the whole of all recorded history; this output was doubled in the second quarter of the century. Ninety per cent of this production was iron-alloyed with a smaller proportion of other metals to form the range of steels which, up till now, have been the fundamental material basis for our present industrial civilization.

5.25 From this point on there are three distinct and characteristic phases of industrial growth and materials use which are of signal importance.

5.26 The first phase is marked by the localized growth of iron and steel production when large scale mechanical industry developed in those countries where supplies of iron ore, coal and limestone were available in close association with developing power and transportation facilities. The swift ’take off’ of the industrially advanced nations owes much to these locally coincident factors of relative self-sufficiency in this first brief phase. Even where their own iron ore supplies had to be augmented as production increased, they had the transport facilities, political and trade power to obtain ores from nearby countries. The increased demands for such materials led to a polarity of trade exchange characterized by the flow of manufactured goods from the industrial countries in return for raw materials from the industrially underdeveloped areas. This pattern, with its latent restrictive functions, persists up to our own period.

5.27 The second phase occurred in the late Nineteenth and early Twentieth Centuries when new ferrous and non-ferrous alloy production began to require constant access to an array of metallic constituents which were relatively scarce in many of the industrialized countries. Such materials as manganese, tungsten, nickel, cobalt, etc., were further, and unevenly dispersed, around the globe – with little relation to previously conceptualized territorial and ’power’ balances. Within a few decades, the separate national systems of industrialization found themselves acutely dependent for vital alloying and other materials on distant, and often competitively controlled, sources of supply. The whole industrial network, both of manufacturing centers and raw materials areas became locked in a critically interdependent global relationship – as no one nation could be self-sufficient in the vast range of materials now essential to the maintenance of its industrial system.

5.28 The new century found Great Britain looking to Canada and the Belgian Congo for cobalt, to British Guinea and France for aluminum ore, to Canada for Nickel, to India and the Gold Coast for manganese, to China and Burma for tung- sten. A new meaning was given to the importance of re- taining command, of the seas . . .giving place to command of the air.ź

5.29 All of the other industrial nations were in the same position; even those, such as the U.S.A., who already possessed a great range of internally available minerals deposits.

5.30 Previously neglected, and underdeveloped, regions possessing key materials de- posits became the latent focus for a long series of inter-nation power struggles. It is noteworthy that the political slogans accompanying these conflicts rarely referred to their latent content, but were expressed in terms of ’living room’, ’manifest destiny’, ’self- determination’ and the like. We may still locate many of our present or potential tension and conflict areas by direct reference to their production or reserve supplies of key ’strategic’ materials.

5.31 Another marked feature of this second phase of industrial development was that the new key metals and other materials, as such, little changed the prevailing polarity of industrial manufacturing and raw materials producing areas. As we have noted, most heavy industry centers had been developed prior to, and independently of, the newer mate- rial needs. The heavy industrial base, for example, was steel production and, where iron ore was required in thousands or millions of tons, to sustain this, the vital new alloying metals for successive steel alloy improvements were required in much smaller quantities – less than one tenth of such amounts of iron ore. The established industrial centers retained, therefore, their prime position.

5.32 The general increase in the number of different materials required, as technologies advanced, lessened the relative importance of any one material in determining industry loca- tion – particularly as the larger range of materials needed was more globally dispersed in its various individual supply origins. The relatively smaller quantities of additional alloying materials required less transportation energies – this factor was further reduced by improvement in transportation and intermediate technologies. Further concentration of industrial power in the established metal working centers was strengthened by the tend- ency towards the use of scrap, particularly in steel making.

5.33 This polarized pattern – in which the advanced countries continue to develop, at higher standards of living with concomitant reduction in family size and overall population pressure; and the lesser developed countries remain largely restricted to the function of raw materials depositories with much less industrial growth, lower living standards and rising population pressures – still obtains to a considerable degree.š The accompanying tensions and conflicts over control of the strategic material regions is further intensified by the internal imbalance of the overall pattern. This might be viewed as an ecological malfunction with the over-concentration of highly specialized and developed areas tending

5.34 źConference on Mineral Resources and the Atlantic Charter, British Association for Advancement of Science, Vol. II, No. 7, 1942.

5.35 šFor example, regions such as South East Asia, Bolivia, Nigeria, and Congo have long produced together almost 90% of the world’s supply of tin, but have had no industrial means for using it internally to their more direct advantage. Advanced countries such as the U.S. consume more than 35% of the world’s tin without any major tin mine within their own boundaries.

5.36 Materials

5.37 toward a latent parasitism on the lesser developed. One key ’over-concentration’, we may note, has been on steel production as the primary industrial base paired with heavy dependence on coal and oil fuels as the energy resource for such industries.

5.38 The third phase, into which we are just entering, is characterized by the possible displacement of steel as the prime industrial material (for structural, machine, transport and other major uses) by other metals, ’composite’ materials and plastics. The forward pattern of development may lie in:

5.39 1) the pairing of aluminum/magnesium/titanium as prime metals with electrical power from hydro or nuclear sources.

5.40 2) in the increased use of metallic and non-metallic composites and plastics in conjunction with similar power sources.

5.41 Such trends are already visible, as we shall later discuss. Their future developments could swiftly diversify and alter the present industrial power balance and possibly turn the present prior investment advantage of the older established industrial regions into a restrictive disability. The speed of technological change no longer favors long term ’stable’ amortization in heavy plant as a standing advantage. The rapid recovery of those ’industrial countries whose capital plant equipment had been largely destroyed in World War II (e.g., Germany and Japan) and their subsequent rise to industrial parity and competitiveness with the other advanced industrial nations, within two decades, is striking evidence of this trending.

5.42 In the above synoptic review, we have devoted most attention to metals and metal-working as the prime materials and technologies of industrialization. Many other materials and technologies played major roles in this development, but the main structural and other technical advances have been closely interwoven with, and dependent upon, metallurgical processes. These, in turn, depended upon the general growth of industrial chemistry which changed manufacture from being predominantly ’mechanical’ in nature toward diverse modes of chemical, electro-chemical and electro-mechanical industrial transformations.

5.43 Our present emphasis on metals is based, therefore, on this continuing centrality of their position within the industrial ecology and, even more importantly, on the critical aspects of overall metal resources in our current transitional period. Until other materials are more fully developed and available in the same abundance with the necessary ranges of tensile stress, hardness, durability, energy conductance, forming capacities, etc., we are heavily dependent upon the key metals. The high living standards afforded by advanced technological facilities are predicated largely on the amounts of metals and inanimate energies available. As the amount of metal used in maintaining such living standards increases in overall consumption with the numbers of persons served by an increasing range of industrial facilities, the amount of metals actually available per capita decreases.

5.44 Within the immediate range of our present technologies we are dealing with a relatively limited amount of metal resources. Alloying chemistry extends the number of their combinations and provides an increasing range of qualities; the reuse of the metals and their alloys through progressive cycles of scrapping and refabrication in different products means that they are not"lost" or used up. In the long run, when we consider such factors, metals are inexhaustible. But, if we wish to increase our immediate forward advantage industrially – to serve more men to higher living standards, we can only do this in the shortest possible time by extracting more designed performance from each unit of metal used.

5.45 97 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.46 IRON ORE WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 29,541 million tons RESERVES in millions of metric tons Other 5,345 China 1,376 Sweden 1,393 Canada 1,754 Brazil 1,797 France 2,682 U.S.A. 2,554 India 3,394 U.S.S.R. 9,246 PRODUCTION in thousands of long tons Other 186,466 Canada 26,914 China 34,400 France 56,978 U.S.A. 73,599 U.S.S.R. 135,304 IMPORTS in thousands of short tons Other 26,700 Poland 8,434 Czech. 8,938 U.K. 14,666 Benelux 19,192 Japan 24,392 W. Germany 26,220 U.S.A. 32,637

5.47 BAUXITE WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 5,760 million tons RESERVES in million tons Other 1,410 Yugo. 290 Hungary 300 Jamaica 600 Guinea 1,100 Australia 2,060 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 8,062,000 U.S.A. 1,525,000 Guinea 1,638,000 France 1,997,000 Guyana 2,342,000 Surinam 3,453,000 U.S.S.R. 4,300,000 Jamaica 6,903,000 IMPORTS in long tons Other 3,309,365 Japan 1,398,974 W.Germany 1,484,200 Canada 1,967,842 U.S.A. 9,170,000

5.48 COPPER WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 212,000 thousand short tons RESERVES in thousands of short tons Other 29,600 Poland 11,400 Peru 12,500 Congo 20,000 Zambia 25,000 U.S.A. 32,500 U.S.S.R. 35,000 Chile 46,000 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 1,160,989 Congo (L) 299,097 Canada 452,558 Zambia 648,239 Chile 665,951 U.S.S.R. 770,000 U.S.A. 1,213,166 IMPORTS (ore & unwrought) in long tons Other 627,156 France 216,941 Italy 220,635 U.S.A. 226,676 Benelux 279,916 U.K. 481,485 W. Germany 566,224 Japan 611,461

5.49 Sources: (1) "Minerals," Julian W. Feiss, Scientific American, September 1963. p. 131.

5.50 Materials

5.51 ZINC WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 85,000,000 short tons Total 4,636,330 short tons Total 2,690,726 long tons

5.52 RESERVES in thousands of short tons Other 4,000 Africa 4,500 Australia 5,300 Brazil & Peru 6,000 Asia 8,000 U.S.A. 12,200 E. Europe & U.S.S.R. 13,000 W. Europe 13,000 Canada 19,000

5.53 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 2,067,341 Peru 216,392 Japan 218,209 Mexico 264,354 Australia 393,600 U.S.S.R. 450,000 Canada 497,180 U.S.A. 529,254

5.54 IMPORTS (ore & unwrought) in long tons Other 575,917 Poland 146,200 Japan 153,447 W.Germany 256,640 France 296,842 U.K. 371,284 Benelux 440,171 U.S.A. 450,225

5.55 LEAD WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 48,800,000 short tons Total 2,805,000 short tons Total 1,502,151 long tons

5.56 RESERVES in thousands of short tons Asia 2,000 S. Africa 2,500 Africa 3,500 Europe 4,600 W. Europe 9,100 Australia 12,500 N. America 14,600

5.57 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 1,130,182 Peru 163,468 Canada 198,988 Mexico 209,425 U.S.A. 253,369 U.S.S.R. 390,000 Australia 459,568

5.58 IMPORTS (ore & unwrought) in long tons Other 342,897 Japan 91,367 Benelux 141,649 France 194,586 U.K. 205,026 W. Germany 206,447 U.S.A. 320,179

5.59 NICKEL WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 16,000,000 short tons Total 395,000 short tons Total 939,098 long tons

5.60 RESERVES in thousands of short tons Other 783 New Caledonia 4,600 Cuba 4,650 Canada 5,967

5.61 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 43,859 New Caledonia 41,200 U.S.S.R. 90,000 Canada 219,941

5.62 IMPORTS (ore, matte & unwrought) in long tons Other 99,970 U.K. 69,106 U.S.A. 97,200 Japan 672,822

5.63 (2) 1964 Minerals Yearbook, Vol. I., U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines, (Washington, D.C.) 1965. (3) Mineral Facts and Problems, 1965 of Interior, Bureau of Mines, (Wa

5.64 Materials

5.65 ZINC WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 85,000,000 short tons Total 4,636,330 short tons Total 2,690,726 long tons

5.66 RESERVES in thousands of short tons Other 4,000 Africa 4,500 Australia 5,300 Brazil & Peru 6000 Asia 8,000 U.S.A. 12,200 E. Europe & U.S.S.R. 13,000 W. Europe 13,000 Canada 19,000

5.67 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 2,067,341 Peru 216,392 Japan 218,209 Mexico 264,354 Australia 393,600 U.S.S.R. 450,000 Canada 497,180 U.S.A. 529,254

5.68 IMPORTS (ore & unwrought) in long tons Other 575,917 Poland 146,200 Japan 153,447 W.Germany 256,640 France 296,842 U.K. 371,284 Benelux 440,171 U.S.A. 450,225

5.69 LEAD WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 48,800,000 short tons Total 2,805,000 short tons Total 1,502,151 long tons

5.70 RESERVES in thousands of short tons Asia 2,000 S. Africa 2,500 Africa 3,500 Europe 4,600 W. Europe 9,100 Australia 12,500 N. America 14,600

5.71 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 1,130,182 Peru 163,468 Canada 198,988 Mexico 209,425 U.S.A. 253,369 U.S.S.R. 390,000 Australia 459,568

5.72 IMPORTS (ore & unwrought) in long tons Other 342,897 Japan 91,367 Benelux 141,649 France 194,586 U.K. 205,026 W. Germany 206,447 U.S.A. 320,179

5.73 NICKEL WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons) Total 16,000,000 short tons Total 395,000 short tons Total 939,098 long tons

5.74 RESERVES in thousands of short tons Other 783 New Caledonia 4,600 Cuba 4,650 Canada 5,967

5.75 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 43,859 New Caledonia 41,200 U.S.S.R. 90,000 Canada 219,941

5.76 IMPORTS (ore, matte & unwrought) in long tons Other 99,970 U.K. 69,106 U.S.A. 97,200 Japan 672,822

5.77 (2) 1964 Minerals Yearbook, Vol. I., U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines, (Washington, D.C.) 1965. (3) Mineral Facts and Problems, 19 of Interior, Bureau of Mines,

5.78 SELECTED METALS, WORLD: 1963 (Reserve Estimate Dates Vary)

5.79 TIN WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons)

5.80 Total 5,503,000 long tons

5.81 RESERVES in thousands of long tons Other 403 Burma 300 U.S.S.R. 500 Congo 500 Bolivia 500 Thailand 800 Indonesia 1,000 Malaysia 1,500

5.82 PRODUCTION in long tons Other 22,359 Nigeria 8,723 Indonesia 12,947 Thailand 15,587 U.S.S.R. 20,000 Bolivia 22,752 China 28,000 Malaysia 59,947

5.83 IMPORTS (ore & unwrought) in long tons Other 50,381 France 10,998 Benelux 11,047 Japan 15,866 W.Germany 19,962 Malaysia 28,140 U.S.A. 44,624 U.K. 52,625

5.84 CHROMITE WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons)

5.85 Total 2,661,000 thousand long tons

5.86 RESERVES in thousands of long tons Other Rhodesia 600,000 South Africa 2,000,000

5.87 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 572,508 Turkey 312,817 Albania 322,977 Rhodesia 412,392 Philippines 506,094 S. Africa 873,212 U.S.S.R. 1,355,000

5.88 IMPORTS in long tons Other 508,221 France 151,235 U.K. 158,971 W.Germany 171,740 Japan 222,938 U.S.A. 1,242,068

5.89 MANGANESE WORLD PRODUCTION (thous. short tons)

5.90 Total 420.5 million tons

5.91 RESERVES in million tons Other 28 China 22.5 S. Africa 27 Brazil 30 India 50 Gabon 50 U.S.S.R. 213

5.92 PRODUCTION in short tons Other 3,566,387 China 1,102,000 India 1,300,273 Brazil 1,382,727 S. Africa 1,441,503 U.S.S.R. 7,345,000

5.93 IMPORTS (ore only) in long tons Other 1,110,025 Poland 299,494 U.K. 305,196 Japan 361,922 W. Germany 639,156 France 701,050 U.S.A. 2,140,873

5.94 55 ed., Bulletin 630, Department Washington, D.C.) 1966.

5.95 (4) Statistical Summary of the Mineral Industry 1959-1964, Overseas Geological Survey, Mineral Resources Division, (London) 1966.

5.96 Materials

5.97 The gain of higher performance per materials use investment is a ’natural’ aspect of advanced technological development. Each successive technical improvement is designed to reduce materials and energy ’costs’ per function. This is dramatically evident in the progressive miniaturization of many devices; in the reduction of materials weight, prime mover and maintenance energies in advanced technologies of transportation, communication, information handling (see chart on computer performance gains).

5.98 Extending advanced industrial standards to all peoples despite decreasing amounts of available metals and other materials per capita is only feasible, therefore, through re-design towards more efficient performance in the use cycle of our major materials. Though inherent within technological development, the swift increase in the overall amounts of materials used, in the range of industrial facilities, and the greater number of users, requires that we more consciously redirect and hasten this process – or we may be over-taken by the inevitable conflicts which our present ’have/have not’ disparities engender.

5.99 KEY METALS

5.100 Some brief comment on selected key metals may be pertinent here. Notes above, on the interdependence of manufacturing and raw materials areas, and the increasing world consumption of these metals may be related to the tables of reserves, production and consumption in this section.

5.101 Iron/Steel

5.102 Though now constituting our main metal usage, it is interesting to reflect that this enormous dependence on iron is relatively recent. Iron came into tool and weapon use only after copper and bronze. Too soft to use in the pure state, it took many centuries for man to control the amount of carbon in iron mixtures to produce a sufficiently hard steel. Our present range of steel alloys mostly originated in the past hundred years. The development of their precise alloying techniques may be accounted one of the most important in our period – when man was able to predict, consistently control and flexibly manipulate, the structural qualities of his major materials on a large scale for the first time.

5.103 With iron as the major component in combination with varying amounts of other metals, steels may be produced with a vast range of required properties; of great tensile strength, degrees of hardness, wear, rust and acid resistance, etc. They may be non-magnetic, of high electrical resistance, low co-efficient of expansion – or possess these and other characteristics in various combinations.

5.104 The main alloying metals used are manganese, chromium, nickel, molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt and vanadium. Chromium and nickel are used to produce rust, acid or heat resisting steels; manganese gives particular wear resisting properties. High speed tool and cutting steels are generally formed with tungsten and/or molybdenum with lesser quantities of chromium, vanadium and cobalt.

5.105 No material presently used, and required, in such large quantities wholly reveals the range of qualities available in steels for general purposes. But, this is now changing quite rapidly as aluminum, magnesium, composites and plastics have entered the field in bulk production. A further factor influencing this shift is the limitation of steel in loss of strength, at very high temperatures, in aerospace and supersonic aircraft work, where atmospheric re-entry heats and ’lead edge’ materials conditions go beyond the melting point of most steels, it has been superseded by ceramic refractory coatings and refractory

5.106 100 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.107 STEEL CONSUMPTION/PRODUCTION TRENDS

5.108 AVERAGE STEEL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (1960-1963)

5.109 United States West Germany U.S.S.R. United Kingdom France W. Europe Japan Latin America Africa India

5.110 0 200 400 600 800 1000 pounds per person

5.111 WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION TRENDS

5.112 500 World Total 400 All Other 300 Japan 200 U.S.S.R. Western Europe 100 United States 1955 1960 1965 millions of tons

5.113 Source: "Transition," Vol. 8, No. 2., Nystrom & Co.

5.114 CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

5.115 PROPERTIES OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS (Ranked by Tensile Strength)

5.116 Material Tensile Tensile Fabricability Corrosion Strength Modulus into Complex Resistance 1,000 psi mil. psi Shapes

5.117 EPOXY, Unidirectionally 100 3 poor excellent (glass-reinforced prepreg)

5.118 STRUCTURAL STEEL 60 27 poor poor

5.119 DIE-CAST ALUMINUM 40 9 good good

5.120 POLYESTER, (glass-fiber- 20 0.2 good excellent reinforced)

5.121 EPOXY, Cast unfilled 10 0.5 good excellent

5.122 RIGID VINYL 8 0.4 excellent excellent

5.123 PHENOLIC (general-purpose) 7 0.1 excellent excellent

5.124 POLYSTYRENE (general-purpose) 6.5 0.5 excellent excellent

5.125 POLYETHYLENE (high-density) 5 0.2 excellent excellent

5.126 GLASS 5 10 good excellent

5.127 WHITE PINE (with grain) 5 1.1 poor good

5.128 Source: 1962 Western Plastics Directory, "Plastics Primer," p. 5.

5.129 Materials

5.130 alloys of other metals. The growing usage of aluminum, other metals and plastics, in areas previously served by steel have, however, forced its development toward higher yield strengths and other properties. Current high tensile strength steels of 18-22 tons per square inch are likely to be doubled in strength yield in the next period, and the possibility of high strength steels of up to 200 tons per square inch also seems feasible within the next few decades. Recent changes in its production technologies have kept steel in a favored position by increasing production, though more direct and ’continuous’ processes have also contributed. The enormous investment in steel industries and their central position in the various national economies sustains constant emphasis on steel as the key industrial base and index of economic development. As we shall later discuss, however, this might no longer obtain for newly developing countries whose major developmental direction may lie with the ’light metals’ or structural plastics as the preferred developmental base.

5.131 As we have noted, the location of iron ore deposits was a prime factor in the development of our major industrial centers in the West. That the availability of local ores is now of lesser importance is evidenced by the growth of the steel industry in, for example, Italy and Japan – as more dependent on the importation and re-use of scrap than primary ore. The scrap cycle has also steadily gained in importance in the long established centers where local high-grade ores have been exhausted or are no longer sufficient to meet demand.

5.132 Copper

5.133 Though probably the first metal used by man, copper has retained a central position relative to steel, even though it is used in far lesser quantities of high ductility, alloying qualities and electrical conductivity. Variations in volume copper use in industrial sectors and its use movement from sector to sector in power generation/transmission, communications and transportation reveal successive gains in performance per unit. in various technologies. For example, where a technical advance enables more messages to be conveyed per wire transmission, or ’wire’ use is superseded by wireless, etc., this is reflected in the decrease in volume copper use in that sector or by acceleration in the scraping pattern. Other indications, such as the electrification of transportation and other systems, increase in armaments production, etc. are reflected in the shift of copper from one sector to another, etc.ş

5.134 About a quarter of the world’s production is used in generators, motors, switchboards and other electrical apparatus; over eight per cent for transmission lines for power and lighting; and five per cent for telephones and telegraphs. Other rod and wire uses consume twelve per cent; bearings, bushes, and fittings four per cent; radio sets over three per cent; and the remaining forty-three per cent or so serves for the various copper alloys and other uses.

5.135 The main alloys of copper are the brasses of the copper-zinc group, the duralumins where copper is a minor, but key constituent, the copper-nickel and copper beryllium alloys. The uses of copper and its alloys are a critical area in industrialization, as underlined

5.136 şSee Copper chartings in Document 2 of this series, "The Design Initiative" by R. B. Fuller.

5.137 "Minerals in Industry", W. R. Jones, (Pelican Books, 1963), p. 88.

5.138 above, and the concentration of ore production in various world regions has led to those nations with limited access to such ores to emphasize the search for substitute conducting materials. The concomitant growth in other conducting metals has also moved copper away from various prime use sectors, e.g., its partial replacement by aluminum for long dist- ance electrical transmissions due to the lesser weight and loss of the latter metals.

5.139 Copper has a high recovery rate in its scrapping and re-use cycles, e.g., in the U.S. about 40% of the copper used in manufacture is derived from scrap, in 1963 scrap recovery equalled 80% of domestic U.S. mines production. More is recycled in the form of brass and other alloys.

5.140 Aluminum

5.141 More abundantly present in the earth’s crust than iron, aluminum’s volume use was relatively much less until recent years for two main reasons. One, earlier bulk pro- duction required much more energy input than iron and was a more complex technical pro- cess, e.g., one ton of aluminum required approximately twenty times more coal equivalent in extraction and processing energies than a ton of iron; second, progress in aluminum alloys did not progress as swiftly as in steel.

5.142 Today the light, strong alloys of aluminum (and magnesium, a somewhat similar case) now provide many of the physical qualities of steel at less than one third of its weight, and with relatively high electrical conductivity.

5.143 From half a million tons of annual production twenty years ago, aluminum world production is now almost 6 million tons. Its chief uses are in construction and transporta- tion; in the latter area, its availability in high strength alloy forms has paced the develop- ment of aircraft and aerospace technologies. More and more uses are developing constant- ly for aluminum as its increasing volume and improvements in alloys reduce overall costs against gains in weight/performance ratios.

5.144 The consumption of aluminum in the various countries gives a useful picture of their degree of material development, e.g., for 1961 per capita aluminum use was as follows:5 U.S. 23 lbs. Australia 8 lbs. U.K. 15 lbs. Japan 4 lbs. Other European countries, less than 10 lbs. per person.

5.145 The extraction of aluminum from its basic ore, bauxite, requires large amounts of electrical power and, therefore, favors local primary processing close to ore sources – where such power is, or can be made, available. The coincidence of large bauxite deposits and potential hydropower in many of the lesser advanced areas has already led to their com- bined development, e.g., in Jamaica, Ghana and to projected large developments in Surinam, Guinea and Indonesia. Apart from Canada and U.S.S.R., most of the other major users of aluminum are more or less dependent on imported bauxite for their needs. Scrap recovery and re-use in production is high, approximately 25% in developed industrial coun- tries.

5.146 5N.B. In terms of such indexing of development, more refined indices could be prepared relating per capita key metals use; performance per unit of invested capability– as shown by access to advanced transport/communication services; information proces- sing equipment, etc. Such indices would go beyond the ordinary economic indicators of G.N.P., etc., to measure more accurately the degree of environmental advantage in- dicated by access to and use of not only material resources, but advanced technological services.

5.147 Materials 103

5.148 Tin

5.149 Important deposits of tin ores occur in few parts of the world and these are, significantly, in the lesser developed regions – South East Asia (Malaya, Thailand, Indonesia), Bolivia, Nigeria, Congo – and – China. The main industrial powers possess little or no domestic tin ore, but consume the world’s major production of tin annually. The relative importance of tin as a ’strategic’ metal lies in alloying – phosphor bronzes, so called gun metals, and importantly for bearings, valves and bushings, accounting for approximately 40% of consumption.

5.150 About twenty per cent is used in the form of solders. With such key uses, the conflicts around the control of tin ore producing areas has furnished the latent background for considerable political and economic maneuvering, e.g., the countries initially occupied by Japan in W. W. II were those producing over 60% per cent of the world’s tin, and we may note that these areas still furnish a central focus for intensified international conflict.

5.151 Various tin compounds, mainly tin oxides and chlorides, constitute a further essential and important use for this metal in industrial undertakings. Both these uses, and others above, including the extensive one of tinplating, give a scrap recovery rate of approximately 30% from all form of tin used with the least recovery from various chemical uses.

5.152 Nickel

5.153 As with tin, the occurrence of nickel ores of workable use constitute another anomaly in metals distribution around the world. More than 80% of the world nickel supply is obtained from one area in Canada. The other producing areas are again of some strategic significance, U.S.S.R. (from the Finnish mines acquired during W. W. II), Cuba and New Caledonia.

5.154 Most of the nickel is used in steel alloying. Either alone or in combination with other alloying elements, it is used to produce steels requiring great strength and durability – for aero-engines, turbines. In specific combination with chromium for nickel-chrome steels, it provides a range of indispensable heat resisting metal alloys. Nickel-iron, and nickel-copper alloys give particular magnetic properties and electrical resistance required in telecommunications, electrical engineering and instrumentation.

5.155 OTHER KEY METALS

5.156 We could continue the above review through the extensive range of metals now essential to the maintenance of the world industrial network. Our intention here, however, is not to survey these metals in detail, such information may be found in the many excellent and comprehensive metals handbooks, but rather to sketch certain global relations of patterns of production and use, and to indicate approaches toward such metal usage which may be fitted within our ecological viewpoint. This will become more apparent when we consider in more detail the circulation and recycling patterns of materials in a further section.

5.157 Some other critical metals should be mentioned, in passing:

5.158 The Ferrous Alloying Elements

5.159 Manganese is not, strictly speaking, an alloying material, but functions much more

5.160 basically in the steel making process as a ’cleansing’ agent which removes various im- purities in the steel melt which might otherwise impair the finished steel’s properties. Some of the main deposits and main production of manganese are again, in regions which have least domestic use for the ore. The main flow is, therefore, from these areas to the industrial center regions. Apart from U.S.S.R., which has by far the largest mine pro- duction of manganese, others are India, Brazil, China, Ghana, Congo – stressing again a dependence polarity of certain ore producing and industrial use centers.

5.161 Cobalt is another such alloying element, whose main source is the Congo Republic producing approximately eight times (60% of the world total production) more than the next bulk areas, Rhodesia, Finland and Canada. Major uses of cobalt are in high speed cutting tool steels and for high temperature engines such as jets; a second important use, account- ing for over a quarter of the world production is in permanent magnetic alloys.

5.162 Tungsten afforded the first improvement on carbon steels for high speed cutting tools, armour plate and projectiles, and came early in the steel alloy development before W. W. I. Its main uses are still in this area, with tungsten carbide steels as one of the hardest known cutting metals. With the highest melting point of any metal, another import- ant use is in electric bulb filaments. Though using less than 2% of the world’s production in this form it is an interesting example of high performance per unit of material. Tung- sten filament is considered to be four and a half times as efficient as carbon filament for such purposes and its use has resulted in tremendous savings in electrical energies, bulbs and other materials.

5.163 The major ore producer is China, about threefold that of the next producers in order – United States, South and North Korea, Bolivia and Portugal.

5.164 Chromium has been referred to earlier in relation to nickel-chrome alloys. Its chief use is in such corrosion resistant chromium steels, accounting for about 45 per cent of production with the remainder in the form of chromite ore used for refractory furnace linings and about 15 per cent for other chemical processes, e.g., the range of chromates in tanning dyeing, photography, etc. Major ore producers are U.S.S.R., South Africa, the Philippines, Southern Rhodesia and Turkey.

5.165 Vanadium though used in fractional quantities for forging, spring and high speed cutting steels, has become of key interest in recent years from its role in special alloys of machine parts requiring high reliability such as transmissions, gears, springs, etc.

5.166 Rare Metals deserving mention here are a group of metals usually referred to as the "rare earths". Though including tungsten, vanadium above, these were originally re- ferred to as rare because of their difficulty of isolation in the pure state. The most familiar to emerge in recent years are molybdenum (long used in steel alloys), titanium, beryllium, columbium, zirconium, tantalum. To these we could add a long list of others which are of growing importance in a wide range of new alloys developed mainly for, and in, aerospace and military research. Titanium has now reached volume production as a major structural metal in its own right with very high strength to weight ratios outperforming columbium and magnesium alloys for many purposes, e.g., in 1965 the latest Mach 3 aircraft was one

5.167 "Less than 2 tons of tungsten metal, supply filaments for 100 million electric bulbs . . .in 1960 the total annual world consumption for light filaments was little more than 200 tons", Minerals in Industry, p. 269, W. R. Jones, (Pelican Books, 1963).

5.168 of the first all titanium aircraft and the new supersonic transports are expected to use large quantities of this metal.

5.169 In this area of ’rare metals’ use, we should also note the direction of development in the use of, for example, germanium and other elements in transistors, solid state circuits, semi-conductors, etc., now the basis of our massive developing communications and computer technologies. First, these are made ultra pure, then design modified by minutely controlled impurities for specific functions of the crystal lattice at the molecular level. We shall comment later upon a similar direction in the use of our ’whisker’ rein- forcement in a swiftly developing range of filament reinforced composite materials.

5.170 Uranium – the successive developments of atomic weapons and other nuclear energy uses have made uranium, radium, thorium and plutonium, the most sought after metals in the past few decades. As the result of intensive world wide search, many such radio- active ore sources of different types have been located. Because of the critical nature of these, in relation to nuclear strategies, information on their distribution, production, etc., tends to be somewhat uneven and where given may be misleading. The major sources for the West are those in Canada, United States, and the Congo, but new discoveries of uranium deposits have occured in Australia, New Zealand and Japan in recent years.

5.171 The importance of these metals for future energy production may be underlined here as the potential reserve of such material will be a key factor in future years. Estimates of the uranium and thorium reserves in the United States alone are of the order of "hundreds to thousands of times greater than the world’s initial supply of fossil fuels (indicating) . . . almost unlimited supplies of energy from the fissionable and fertile isotopes of uranium and thorium."

5.172 Silicon is an interesting example here of the most plentiful element in the earth’s crust now . . . "at the heart of many of the most explosive areas of modern growth; com- puters, home entertainment, military electronics, and the control of power – not only at signal power levels, but also at bulk power levels."

5.173 N.B. The introduction of these new element uses, and of the ’nuclear’ elements below presage a new phase in our resource thinking which we shall discuss later. In this forward development, which we may call the fourth phase, the level of organized know- ledge, i.e., research, and its capacity to ’restructure’ materials to almost any desired range of physical properties will further erode all the previous notions of the need for the separate national and other groupings to compete for the inequably distributed, naturally occurring, material resources.

5.174 METAL RESERVES AND FUTURE USES

5.175 Most analyses of world resource materials deal in "years of supply in exploitable reserves" – for example:

5.176 One of the most productive titanium ore deposits is in India, producing the third highest amounts, after U. S. and Canada, in the past two decades.

5.177 Energy Resources, Pub. 1000-D, National Academy of Sciences, National Re- search Council (U.S.), 1962.

5.178 Statement of Dr. G. Guy Suits, Director of Research, General Electric Co., Panel on Science and Technology, 7th meeting, 1966, 89th, U.S. Congress.

5.179 Aluminum 570 years Copper 29 years Iron 250 years Lead 19 years Zinc 23 years Tin 35 years

5.180 The use of such estimates whilst useful for general economic criteria, is limited by lack of appreciation of the limited degree to which such metals are actually ’used up’. As we have noted, most of them are highly recoverable through their scrapping cycles and are, therefore, used over and over again. Our ’reserves’ therefore, include all metals in present use and those recoverable from the lowest grade ore deposits in the earth crust, which are not usually accounted for in terms of ’exploitability’ – as not being economically exploitable in present terms. Of course, present availability is important, as we have stressed, in the next critical transition to full industrial parity for all men. In dealing with energy resource reserves, the key question is how we may bring the underdeveloped nations up to fully industrialized standards of living, i.e., as measured by present materially advanced regions. It may be noted, for example, ’that the U.S. with only 6 percent of the world’s population, consumes approximately 30 percent of the world’s total current production of minerals’. We might then ask how much more would be required to bring the total world population up to the same level of material consumption. This comes out to about five times the present world production of minerals – far more than we can presently attain to with present levels of materials and energy performance efficiencies.

5.181 Using an ordinary example, suppose we tried to extend the 1960 level of U. S. automobile use (at roughly 1 auto per 3 persons) to the entire world population? This would require approximately 2,300 million tons of steel – as against total world steel production (1963) of 425 million tons only.

5.182 In the same way, when we consider extending full scale electrification to the underdeveloped nations, the average use of copper per capita in fully industrialized nations is approximately 120 pounds per capita. The increase of even one pound per capita consumption in present world population terms would require about 36 per cent increase in world copper production. Even the slightest rise in living standards can require vastly increased amounts of metals use in our present terms. Again this underlines that the only way to advance the living standards of the under advantaged countries, by bringing them up to industrial parity, is through overall increase in the performance per pound of all invested resource. This is, as we have noted, inherent in the advanced technological development processes. It requires, however, to be more immediately realized and used as a design principle, in the less technologically advanced areas of our environment facilities, e.g., building as one of the crucial areas for re-design.

5.183 The above reserves table may then be viewed as a useful guide for long range future planning, as indicating where it may be more practical to concentrate on the highest extraction of performance from present above grade already mined and processed metals – so as to keep an amount of ’exploitable’ reserves in storage against future, unforeseeable emergents. In thinking about such ’reserves’ of metals, it is important to keep in mind (1) their recycling nature in actual use, i.e., that they are not exhausted by use; (2) that exploitable refers only to present limits of economic return, in processing metal ores, against energy cost inputs.

5.184 Given abundant supplies of energy, e.g., nuclear, we may secure almost inexhaustible supplies of further minerals from the earth’s crust and oceans plus the developing capacity to increasingly ’construct’ or synthesize materials from many different element sources. The critical period lies in our present transition from one ’kind of world’ to another – of more equable distribution of life advantages.

5.185 Materials

5.186 Oceans

5.187 So far, we have hardly touched upon the potential of ocean exploration for metals and other materials. Sodium and chlorine via common salt, and bromine, have long been extracted from sea water; magnesium is already being produced on a large scale where it occurs as one part to 800 parts of water. Various bodies of sea water, e.g., in the Red Sea, have been found to contain concentrations of various elements of 1,000 to 50,000 times that found in ordinary sea water, and may be considered as fluid ocean mines. Further extraction of other materials is now projected with the development of large scale desalination plants.

5.188 The more immediate bulk production source for ocean ores may be that of the nodule deposits recently discovered on the ocean floor. In many areas, thick concentrations of high grade ore nodules have been located with manganese content up to 50 per cent, cobalt, nickel, copper to 3 per cent respectively, and other metals in varying amounts. One specifically interesting quality of these nodules is their continuing growth formation. Referring to the speed with which such nodule deposits grow, one authority has suggested that, ". . .as these nodules are being mined, the minerals industry would be faced with the interesting situation of working a deposit that grows faster than it could be mined or consumed."10

5.189 In terms of ’ecological design’ of using the naturally occurring growth cycles, the above has interesting connotations! Further examples may be adduced which are of relevance to oceans use. A number of plants and animals have been found to have the power of concentrating elements found in sea water, as land plants and animals selectively accumulate soil elements. Seaweeds concentrate iodine from its normal dispersion of 0.001 per cent in sea water to up to 0.5 per cent; certain coral species take up iodine to 8 per cent levels. Oysters concentrate copper from sea water, and a particular sea slug has the capacity to concentrate vanadium in its body though the quantity in its environ is quite minute.

5.190 When we consider that, apart from the minerals already present in the ocean waters and floor, it has been estimated that in the United States some 200 tons of copper, in various forms, are lost to the oceans in sewage per year for each million persons, together with 50 tons each of such metals as manganese, lead, aluminum and titanium. Such naturally occurring agents could possibly be designed into processing systems for minerals concentration and recovery. Our use of domesticated land food, plants and animals, is precisely such an ongoing system for intermediate processing of food energies and materials.

5.191 A further balancing aspect relative to metals use and the general pattern of reserves and recycling of materials is the third phase shift to composites, to non-metallic and plastic substitutes for many of the previous functions of metals.

5.192 THE SYNTHESIS OF MATERIALS

5.193 Reference to ’synthetic’ and ’man-made’ materials is, in some senses, misleading. We do not make new materials but, rather, discover new ways to ’rearrange’ the elements in various configurations and combinations which give us similar desired properties to some naturally occurring configuration, e.g., synthetic wood or stone. Or, we may re-

5.194 10The Mineral Resources of the Sea, J. L. Mero, (Elsevier Publishing Co., 1965).

5.195 PLASTICS

5.196 PLASTICS: Introduction of Types & Total Production

5.197 (1868-1925) CELLULOSE NITRATE, PHENOL-FORMALDEHYDE, CASEIN 1925- 6 mill.lbs. (1926-1930) ALKYD, ANALINE-FORMALDEHYDE, CELLULOSE ACETATE, POLYVINYL CHLORIDE, UREA-FORMALDEHYDE 1930- 31 mill.lbs. (1931-1935) ETHYL CELLULOSE 1935- 95 mill.lbs. (1936-1940) ACRYLIC, POLYVINYL ACETATE, CELLULOSE ACETATE BUTYRATE, POLYSTYRENE, NYLON, POLYVINYL ACETAL, POLYVINYLIDENE- CHLORIDE, MELAMINE-FORMALDEHYDE 1940- 277 mill.lbs. (1941-1945) POLYESTER, POLYETHYLENE, FLUOROCARBON, SILICONE, CELLULOSE PROPINATE 1945- 818 mill.lbs. (1946-1950) EPOXY, ACRYLONITRILE-BUTADIENE-STYRENE, ALLYLIC 1950- 2.2 bill.lbs. (1951-1955) POLYURETHANE 1955- 3.7 bill.lbs. (1956-1960) ACETAL, POLYPROPYLENE, POLYCARBONATE, CHLORINATED POLYETHER 1960- 6.1 bill.lbs. (1961-1965) PHENOXY, POLYALLomer, IONOMER, POLYPHENYLENE OXIDE, POLYIMIDE, ETHYLENE-VINYL-ACETATE, PARYLENE, POLYSULFONE 1965- 11.5 bill.lbs.

5.198 for United States only

5.199 Data: (1) The Epic of Steel, Douglas A. Fischer, (New York: Harper & Row), 1963. p. 304. (2) Impact of Western Man, William Woodruff, (New York: MacMillan Co.), 1966. pp. 210-13.

5.200 Materials 109

5.201 arrange the molecular configuration to give a range of material properties which are not available in nature, e.g., as in the plastics. Strictly speaking, man has always been ’synthesizing’ his environ constituents in re-forming and re-structuring them to his specific needs – from the earliest use of fire, foods, fibers, metals, etc., up to the latest alloys and plastics. There is no ’intrinsic’ difference, therefore, between natural and synthetic materials; the one is not ’truer to nature’ than the other. Our division here on the synthesis of materials merely established the degree of balance of man’s restructuring and re-designing materials over that of using those naturally occurring forms.

5.202 The first commercial plastics, i.e., the cellulose nitrates or celluloids, were made in the late 1860’s; though one of the synthetic resins, polystyrene, was isolated in 1831. The bakelites, phenol-formaldehyde-resins, were introduced in 1909, and, for the next twenty years, celluloids and bakelites were the major plastic materials in use. The next large volume introduction of two of our present key plastics groups, the cellulose acetates and vinyl resins, occurred significantlyźź in 1927. Polystyrene became available in bulk in 1938 and the polyethylenes in 1942. Since then, a major new group of plastics with unique properties has been introduced approximately every year. Today the volume and diversity of these groups defies any summary listing. The world total volume consumption of all such ’synthetics’ in 1966 was about one third of the volume consumption of all metals, and by the 1980’s it is calculated that the volume use of plastics will surpass that of all iron products.

5.203 Again, our division below into composites, plastics, etc., is somewhat generalized and artificial, as the enormous range of such materials already diffuses through many such categories. Materials synthesis, as such, now runs through so many fields, from molecular, chemical and physical transformations to the use of bio-chemical systems and microbial agencies, that it would defy even the barest cataloguing here. Our present emphasis will, therefore, remain mostly with structural materials.

5.204 Composites

5.205 This most recent class of designed materials, developed particularly in the past few decades, affords a bridge between the metal alloys and the non-metallics in the ceramics and plastics range. One group of composites may be regarded as a ’subform’ of alloy, consisting of minute amounts of lower melting point metals embedded in a refractory metal to give better forming ductility to the latter without impairing its other properties. Another consists of the range of metallic and non-metallic composites reinforced with high modules fibers, or filaments of boron, graphite, beryllium, glass, etc. This class also uses pure ’whisker’ reinforcements of various metals which give extremely high strength in their whisker state. Solid forms of various types, made from high melting point oxides are in development which may be glazed with refractory ceramics for superior performance to metals at very high temperatures.

5.206 źźSignificance here refers to 1927 as the beginning of a period of grave economic and political crises which continue up through the depression years of the 1930’s. The ’lack of fit’ between such events and underlying ’real’ developments is striking when we consider that 1932 also marked the year of completion of the elements table, the initiation and a swiftly ensuing number of scientific and technical developments, many of whose full impacts are only now emerging into economic and political ’reality’. (For more detailed discussion of this point, see Document 2, "The Design Initiative", (1964), R. B. Fuller, in the present series).

5.207 110 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.208 COMPOSITE MATERIALS

5.209 Tensile Strength to Density (psi):(lbs/cu.in.)10 3 2 1 Steel Aluminum Titanium Composites 1900 20 40 60 80

5.210 Tensile Modulus of Elasticity (psi):(lbs/cu.in.)10 3 2 1 Steel Aluminum Titanium Composites 1900 20 40 60 80

5.211 Compressive Strength to Density (psi):(lbs/cu.in.)10 3 2 1 Aluminum alloys Composites 1900 20 40 60 80 Year

5.212 Modulus to Specific Gravity Modulus of Elasticity x 10 (p.s.i.) 30 20 10 0 Future Composites Steel Titanium Aluminum Reinforced Plastics 0 2 4 6 8 10 Specific Gravity

5.213 Source: David L. Grimes, Vice President, Wittaker Corp., San Diego, Calif.

5.214 Materials

5.215 In general, the promise of very high tensile strength structural materials through the use of these composite techniques, in particular those of the filament reinforcement type, has already been borne out in aerospace work. Metallic composites are already in such use, or in advanced development; have the inherent possibility of achieving unprecedented strengths most nearly approaching, and surpassing, the highest theoretical yield limits of their separate constituent materials. The accompanying curve charts show the predicted gain in performance over the next period based on test results of composites reinforced with high modulus filaments of boron, graphite, glass and beryllium.

5.216 Structural Plastics of the glass fiber reinforced epoxy resin, and other bases, are similar to the above group of filament composites and have become one of the most important ranges of plastic materials. The impact resistance of such fiber reinforced plastics having a given strength to weight ratio has already risen 1000% in the past ten years compared to aluminum and plywood.

5.217 Comment, of particular interest, on this range is given relative to the design of the latest Boeing 737 aircraft which used:

5.218 2 1/2 times more reinforced plastics on the exterior than on any other commercial jet. The result when combined with all the (plastic) non-structural sections is a savings of . . .hundreds of pounds (weight).źš

5.219 Further savings quoted were up to 50% fewer production man hours and parts which weighed 34% less than an equivalent metal assembly.

5.220 Though accounting for fewer structural plastics than aircraft, automobiles as a lesser advanced technological sector more committed to traditional materials and techniques, are replacing metals with plastics in many areas. The United States industry now averages 35 pounds of plastics per car; Mercedes Benz more than 40 pounds and the U.K. Rover 2000 up to 38 pounds. The anticipated use for autos by 1970 is upwards of 70 pounds per car. Many sports car models have already used reinforced plastic bodies for some-time, and several, like the GRS Porsche, use plastics more extensively and additionally throughout their construction, for seats, bulkheads, panels and gas tanks.

5.221 In discussing such ’invasion’ of traditional metal’s areas by new materials, the rate at which this takes place is not simply gauged by ’functional’ replacement, but determined rather more by the degree of investment in older materials, established plant production procedures and many other factors. The more swiftly moving determinants of forward resource use patterns now are not the established industries tied into steel, but those in the lead-edge of advanced transportation, communications, etc. Their use of materials is comparatively of less bulk weight, and extracts much higher performance per unit of material and energy investment – factors which are not so apparent in classical economic and trade analyses.

5.222 As we come down through the uses of plastics in various industrial sectors, we might almost gauge the level of technological advance in each by its use of materials. We

5.223 12 "Plastics in the Boeing 737", Metals Progress, February 1967.

5.224 112 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.225 MATERIALS REPLACED BY PLASTICS

5.226 ESTIMATED REPLACEMENT OF SELECTED MATERIALS BY PLASTICS IN 1970

5.227 Iron & Steel 9,800 1,200 Aluminum 400 160 Copper 460 65 Brass 600 75 Zinc 850 140 Glass 4,300 1,720

5.228 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent of Weight Reduction Gained Through Replacement

5.229 KEY MILLIONS OF LBS. OF MATERIAL REPLACED BY PLASTIC MILLIONS OF LBS. OF PLASTIC USED IN REPLACEMENT

5.230 ESTIMATED USE OF PLASTICS IN APPLIANCES & AUTOMOBILES

5.231 Refrigerators & Freezers Washers Air Cond. Dryers Ranges

5.232 1956 1966 1976 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 average pounds per unit

5.233 Automobiles

5.234 1960 1965 1970 100 75 50 25 0

5.235 "Since 1955 the average plastic has dropped in price by about 35%, whereas steel has increased in price by more than 20%....On a weight basis, plastics probably never will be as cheap as steel; but on a volume basis the price difference could all but disappear.

5.236 "....Tooling costs are lower for plastics than for metals. Also, complex shapes can be molded in a single operation, and finishing of parts is virtually eliminated. A metal part often involves the assembly of several components – this means additional labor cost and a higher price for the finished part." –"Chemicals and the Auto Industry," Special Report, Chemical and Engineering News, October 22, 1962, p. 117.

5.237 Sources: (1) Technology Behind Investment, (New York: A. D. Little, Inc.), 1965. (2) "Cost-Price Squeeze Tightens Materials Battle in Major Appliances," Steel, July 1966.

5.238 have touched upon aerospace, aircraft and autos. As we come to marine technologies, though this is one of the oldest sectors, its eruption into ’below surface’ areas has given it a new technological dimension as rigorous in its performance demands as aerospace. Marine uses for corrosion resistant and high strength plastics now ranges through all plastic craft to cables, instrumentation housing, propellers, submersible shells and sub- marine parts, etc. One of the least advanced technological sectors is in building construc- tion which typically uses less structural plastic than other major areas, e.g., its overall bulk uses of plastics represents other functions such as internal surfacing, appliances, etc.

5.239 Though, within our present review, we have devoted most space to the metals, particularly steel, this has been due to their present importance in the critical transition necessity to raise world living standards to parity as soon as possible. This critical focus may already be changing swiftly as the plastics begin to take over from the steels and other common metal alloys in increasing proportions. The pattern is partially obscured by the difference in weight/volume measures obtaining in the two areas of metals and plastics. One weight unit of plastic may replace the same weight unit of metal, but the volume dis- placement may be much greater due to their difference in density.źş Analysis of cost com- parisons of metals to plastic is already conducted in volumetric terms, e.g., plastics are now cheaper than steel, aluminum or magnesium for various uses on a cost per cubic inch basis.ź

5.240 This progressive replacement of metals by swiftly developing groups of plastic may be particularly noted not only in relation to the composites discussed above, but in the range of ’structural polymers’. Using the analogy of designed rearrangements of carbon to produce man-made diamonds which duplicate the hardness and strength characteristic of natural diamond forms of carbon, one authority, referring to the "Age of Polymers", notes that:

5.241 (polymers) . . . are becoming bona fide structural materials of real consequence. They are already replacing many metals in consumer products to such a degree that in United State’s industry as a whole the volume of polymers used already ex- ceeds the volume of steel . . . (due to) the density difference averaging about seven times in favor of polymers. But rela- tive growth rate of usage is such that polymers will soon over- take steel, even on a weight basis, and they may have already done so . . . polymers will indeed become the basic materials of the future. We will be manufacturing the bulk of our pro- ducts, and even the machines that make them from new, man- made, synthetic polymers. And, inevitably, the elements from which we will fashion these new polymers are common inexpensive ones.ź

5.242 źşSee accompanying tables of displacement of metals by plastic, also specific dis- cussion of this point in "The Synthetics Age," R. Houwink, Modern Plastics, 1966.

5.243 źTechnology Behind Investment, (A. D. Little Inc., 1966).

5.244 źStatement by Dr. G. Guy Suits, Vice President and Director of Research, General Electric Co., 7th Panel on Science and Technology, 89th U.S. Congress, Jan. 1966.

5.245 114 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.246 MATERIAL USAGE IN INDUSTRY

5.247 ALLOY STEEL Automotive 40.1% Marine 4.9% Elect./Indust. Equip. 11.6% Rail Transportation 15.9% Consumer Prod./Export 7.9% Const./ContractorProd 13.7% Miscellaneous 5.9%

5.248 ALUMINIUM Transportation 22.0% Packaging 8.0% Elect. Industrial 15.0% Household Goods 12.3% Bldg. & Construction 19.0% Miscellaneous 23.5%

5.249 REINFORCED PLASTICS Transportation 19.7% Pipes, Ducts etc. 4.7% Marine 17.2% Containers 4.3% Aerospace 11.6% Electrical 5.1% Consumer Prod. 13.0% Construction 20.3% Miscellaneous 4.2%

5.250 REINFORCED PLASTICS PROD. (in millions of lbs.) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1950 54 58 62 66 70 74 Total Transportation Aerospace

5.251 in U.S.A. figures

5.252 Sources: (1) Trends in Applications of Structural Composite Materials, David L. Grimes, (Washington, D. C.: Advisory Group for Aerospace Research & Development), November 1965. p. 11. (2) Metals Handbook, Eight Edition, Vol. 1, (Ohio: American Society for Metals), 1961.

5.253 Materials

5.254 When we extend discussion of plastics into the non-structural area, including synthetic rubbers, man-made fibers, etc. We may see the increased range of human activity in which these are now employed. Through packaging, clothes, all types of tools and appliances, to large scale agricultural and other uses, we engage not only with polymers but with the entire range of the electro-chemical industries, now extending into the scale incorporation of bio-electro-chemical techniques. These industries are now the forward core base of industrialization rather than the steel producing complex – with which, of course, they are closely associated.

5.255 This brings many other issues into fresh perspective, particularly that of the use of fossil fuels. The chemicals derived from these fuels are the basic materials for most of the synthetic resins and elastomer plastics, and importantly, for the synthetic rubbers – a further important reason to reconsider our presently prodigal energy extraction from these fuel deposits.

5.256 We have earlier referred to this third phase of industrialization with its shift from earlier dependence on steels and associated direct use of fossil fuels. By moving out of this dependence, we shift also from the capital depletion bias of our resources use till now – to that of a more ecologically oriented ’tapping in’ to the basic income sources of energies and materials.

5.257 When we begin to use the most commonly available and abundant elements in the earth crust, atmosphere and oceans, in ’designed’ combinations with the rarer elements, within a pattern of comprehensive recycling and re-use, we come to an almost entirely different picture of our material resources.

5.258 Questions of resource balances, reserves, the dependence of industries and whole economies on access to this or that resource will change radically. This is demonstrated by the above examples of the newer alloys, the ’electronic’ and ’nuclear’ elements, and even more in the plastics and other designed and man-made materials.

5.259 We will be less and less dependent on the given configurations and properties of naturally occurring ’rare’ deposits, on the ownership and control of strategic minerals, but rather more on the possession of organized knowledge, i.e., trained human beings, their requisite standards for full creative living and the material facilities for their continued pursuit of further knowledge. Unfortunately the earlier polarity established between advanced and less advanced world regions is only further intensified in this dimension during our present transition period. The accummulated industrial wealth, associated higher living and educational standards, and research facilities of the former still maintain their earlier advantage.

5.260 The actual trends in materials research and development suggest that if we are able to assist the advance of the lesser developed peoples more swiftly, and survive this period of laggard disparities, then many of the older bases for conflict over ’scarce’ and inequably distributed resources will disappear. Conflict and competition will be re-oriented toward other areas of human activity. Notions of territoriality, strategic rights and control of material resource deposits will shift to the ’brain mines’ of the world – and these are, perhaps, not so amenable to the older forms of political and economic control.

5.261 Returning briefly to our central topic of the development of the world’s less advantaged regions, we may note, again, that the emerging patterns of new material types and uses, discussed above, restresses new directions for such development. The old patterns of steel, heavy industry, massive centralization, etc., are no longer viable. The

5.262 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.263 POPULATION/MATERIALS: Projected Consumption

5.264 YEAR 1966 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000 POPULATION (billions) 3.4 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.6 7.0

5.265 Metals IRON Mil. tons 469.0 560.0 900.0 1130.0 1400.0 2250.0 Lbs./person 304.0 332.0 431.0 497.0 550.0 706.0 ALUMINUM Mil. tons 7.7 11.3 32.0 55.0 90.0 250.0 Lbs./person 5.0 7.0 15.0 24.0 35.0 79.0 COPPER Mil. tons 5.4 6.2 9.2 10.0 13.5 20.0 Lbs./person 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 ZINC Mil. tons 4.3 5.0 7.2 8.7 10.4 15.0 Lbs./person 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 TOTAL METALS Mil. tons 486.0 582.0 948.0 1204.0 1514.0 2535.0 Lbs./person 315.0 345.0 453.0 503.0 594.0 795.0 Mil. cu. m. 64.0 78.0 129.0 167.0 215.0 384.0 Liters/person 19.0 21.0 28.0 33.0 38.0 55.0

5.266 Synthetics PLASTICS Mil. tons 16.0 27.0 105.0 240.0 420.0 1700.0 Lbs./person 10.0 16.0 50.0 116.0 165.0 535.0 SYNTHETIC RUBBERS Mil. tons 3.9 5.5 11.5 16.0 23.0 44.0 Lbs./person 2.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 9.0 14.0 MAN-MADE FIBERS Mil. tons 5.6 7.2 13.0 17.0 24.5 46.0 Lbs./person 4.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 10.0 15.0 TOTAL SYNTHETICS Mil. tons 25.5 40.0 130.0 273.0 467.0 1790.0 Lbs./person 17.0 24.0 62.0 121.0 183.0 563.0 Mil. cu. m. 23.0 35.0 114.0 236.0 409.0 1564.0 Liters/person 6.8 9.5 25.0 47.0 73.0 224.0

5.267 Natural Products NATURAL RUBBER Mil. tons 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 Lbs./person 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 NATURAL FIBERS Mil. tons 19.0 21.5 30.2 35.0 41.5 60.0 Lbs./person 12.0 13.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 19.0 TOTAL NATURAL PROD. Mil. tons 21.2 24.0 32.8 37.7 44.3 63.0 Lbs./person 14.0 14.0 16.0 17.0 17.0 20.0 Mil. cu. m. 18.4 20.7 27.7 31.9 37.5 53.2 Liters/person 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.6

5.268 Totals Million tons 533.0 646.0 1111.0 1515.0 2025.0 4388.0 Lbs./person 345.0 385.0 530.0 667.0 794.0 1379.0 Mil. cu. m. 105.0 134.0 271.0 435.0 662.0 2001.0 Liters/person 31.0 36.0 59.0 87.0 118.0 286.0

5.269 The paper from which the preceeding table has been adapted suggests that we use volume as against weight measures, particularly in relation to the comparative use of plastics – whose weight consumption does not reflect their increasing use volume. This is an important point. With the density differential involved, one pound of plastic may replace up to eight pounds of metal. As strength to weight ratio increases in the synthetics, weight alone may be less important than space volume per performance.

5.270 Source: "The Synthetics Age," R. Houwink, Modern Plastics, August 1966, table 1, p. 99.

5.271 Materials 117

5.272 developing nations would be better encouraged by, and for, the world community of nations to move directly into the forward phases of industrialization, into the age of polymers, light metals, nuclear power generation and the full range of automated production, transportation and communication facilities. Questions as to how, at what monetary cost, and by whom supported, are increasingly irrelevant as we begin to spend more materials, energies and human lives in our present global conflicts than have been even fractionally used on behalf of human advancement.

5.273 Ecological Re-design

5.274 Though concentrating on the more immediate and positive advantage which may be sought through increasing the efficiency of energy and materials usage in our technological systems, we have also underlined the necessary long range re-design of these so that they may be more compatible with the overall ecological system.

5.275 Until recently our technological systems were hardly considered as an ’organic’ part of the ecology, hence little attention was given to this aspect of their function. Now when they begin to degrade environ usage and soil various preferred sectors of the air, earth and waters with their discarded materials and energy use by-products, we begin to examine their ’pathology’ – without, in a sense, having engaged first in some overall assessment of their physiology.

5.276 Generally, when the problem is stated simply in terms of ’technological hazards’, this tends to produce various piecemeal programs of filtering industrial smoke or car exhausts, or checking the level of effluents into rivers and streams, or legislating natural conservation and ’beautification’ projects. Laudable as these may be, they do not pose the problem in large enough terms. Fortunately, the various scientific bodies in different countries who have been called upon to consult on the ’pollution problem’ have already re-framed this within the larger context of some overall ’management’ of air, water and other physical resource utilization at the various regional and national levels. They have addressed themselves not only to the quantitative aspects of such resource management, but also to the quality of the environment.

5.277 We have referred to technology as an extension of the human metabolism – one which processes millions of tons of material each day, yet we have no very clear picture of its operation even to the extent that we have such knowledge of our own internal workings.

5.278 We need to reconceptualize our global, man-made environ facilities within more comprehensive and coherent schemes. For example, even where refined and advanced econometric models of whole regional and national economies are presently used, they concern themselves largely with the inputs and outputs of the industrial system almost solely from the viewpoint of its economic operation, in terms of fiscal and material balances. There is little sense of the complex ecological relationships and throughputs which obtain even when we consider the industrial-economic system in isolation.

5.279 A great deal is known about the overall operation and linkages of the different components of the industrial complex, so patently many of the inefficiencies, wastages and breakdowns occur not through lack of such operational knowledge, but through lack of adequate conceptuality of the whole system’s operation. We need to reanalyze our industrial systems in terms of models which are not based on simplistic notions of production/consumption.

5.280 We do not ’produce’ things in the sense of manufacturing them out of new raw materials only – then ’consume’ them so that they and their constituent materials no longer exist.

5.281 118 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.282 CLOSED ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM

5.283 WATER AND AIR RECIRCULATION SYSTEM

5.284 Used wash water WATER RE- COVERY UNIT Drinking water Clean wash water WATER RE- COVERY UNIT Urine MAN Used Cabin air ACTIVATED CHAR- COAL FILTER Catalytic BURNER Clean Cabin air DEHUMIDIFIER CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATOR Oxygen Water Carbon Dioxide WATER ELECTRO- LYSIS UNIT CARBON DIOXIDE REDUCTION UNIT Hydrogen Carbon

5.285 METABOLIC REQUIREMENTS & RESULTANT WASTES IN POUNDS FOR A 160 lb. MAN

5.286 TOTAL INPUT Oxygen = 2.2 lbs. Food = 1.3 lbs. (Dehydrated) Water = 7.0 lbs. MAN Breathing = 2.1 lbs. Metabolic process produces 7,000 - 10,000 BTU per day Drinking & eating = 5.0 lbs. Exhaled CO2 = 2.4 lbs. Flatus & other wastes = > 0 lbs. Excreted solids = 0.18 lbs. Excreted H2O = 5.8 lbs Washing = 2.0 lbs. Oxygen for incin- eration = 0.75 lbs. Waste incin- eration process CO2 = 0.2 lbs. N2 & NaCl etc. = > 0 lbs. H2O = 0.1 lbs. Urine = 3.2 lbs. Feces etc. = 0.4 lbs. Insensible = 2.2 lbs. Total water = 7.9 lbs. TOTAL OUTPUT Total CO2 = 4.2 lbs.

5.287 Sources: (1) E. S. Mills, R. L. Butterton, Douglas Missile & space Systems Development Interplanetary Mission Life Support System, 1965. (2) NASA: ASD Report TR 61-363.

5.288 Materials

5.289 We extract materials out of the earth in one part of the globe, transport them to another area halfway around the world, process them with other locally available materials, e.g., air/water/energy, into various ’use’ configurations which are then further processed elsewhere in the system or go directly into human use.

5.290 We do not then ’consume’ products in any kind of end sense. They are used in a well defined life cycle, then broken down in such use and are repaired, or discarded and replaced. Some of their material constituents are returned to the process and fabrication cycle directly or indirectly in various time lags of secondary uses, others are further decomposed, returned in part to the earth or atmosphere or ’flushed’ into the oceans.

5.291 Though the above schema seems repetitive, and simplistically drawn, we generally design and use our environment as if we had no knowledge of its existence! As has been underlined, most of our currently prodigal modes of using the earth and biosphere systems are potentially dangerous. We dissipate vast quantities of capital energies which may be needed in future emergencies, and we disperse valuable concentrations of materials which we have no present means of reconstituting. Referring earlier to the concept of ’spaceship earth’, we may quote another version of this:

5.292 The closed economy of the future might similarly be called the ’spaceman’ economy, in which the earth has become a single spaceship, without unlimited reservoirs of anything, either for extraction or for pollution, and in which, therefore, man must find his place in a cyclical ecological system which is capable of continuous reproduction of material form even though it cannot escape having inputs of energy . . . 16

5.293 This extends to our use of ’income’ resources, to the use of soils, of air, water, and to our understanding of our complex interdependence on other organic life forms. We have already used up and destroyed a great many other living species with little enquiry as to their possible functional relation to our own survival.

5.294 In re-designing our environmental, and particularly our industrial, facilities as ecological subsystems, we need to determine the gainful and more efficient linkages which may be established between separately functioning processes. To this end, the various major cycle charts, and those of the closed aerospace ecologies may be usefully related and compared with industrial networks or with the systems function of a community, or with a large scale building complex. We may ask how the overall energy flows are disposed relative to each use and function in the latter systems, and how more performance may be gained through different relations. In such extended systems review we might re-design materials throughput so that the wastes and by-products, the discards and residues of one sector of the network may become the raw materials (or energy source) of another. In general, this direction has already been broached in ’systems design’, but requires much larger scale investigation and application.

5.295 One convenient focus of attention lies, specifically, in the scrapping and reuse cycles of materials. We customarily design our structures and other facilities and artefacts only in terms of one cycle use – with design calculation given to the eventual disassembly of components and their direct reuse, or their scrapping and re-entry into the

5.296 16 K. E. Boulding, "Resources for the Future: Forum", October, 1966.

5.297 120 W.D.S.D. 1967 Document 6

5.298 IRON & STEEL SCRAP INDUSTRY

5.299 MINED ORE BLAST FURNACES PIG IRON iron and steel foundry castings steel mill products machine shop fabrication and production prompt industrial scrap obsolete scrap

5.300 Estimated total inventory of potentially recover- able iron and steel that will become obsolete from marketed products as measured by the LIFE CYCLE OF PRODUCTS

5.301 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965

5.302 in primary use during 1955-1965 materials too costly to recover materials in secondary use, i.e., held in standby or for parts materials not being used and not yet sold as scrap scrap sold to dealers and which is held or sold depending upon the market price fluctuation.

5.303 MARKET CLASSIFICATION % AVERAGE LIFE CYCLE OF PRODUCTS RECOVERABLE SCRAP PERCENT

5.304 Shipbuilding & Marine equipment 100 Rail Transportation equipment 86 Contractors’ products 87 Foundry 100 Ordnance & other Military equipment 36 Electrical machinery & equipment 75 Mining, Quarrying, & Lumbering 91 Machinery & Industrial tools 94 Agricultural equipment 99 Containers 13 Automotive 100 Other domestic & commercial equipment 57 Oil & Gas drilling equipment 100 Appliances, Utensils, & Cutlery 76 Aircraft 100

5.305 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 years

5.306 Data: (1) Survey & Analysis of the Supply and Availability of Ob- solete Iron & Steel Scrap, Revised Edition, Batelle Memorial Institute, (Ohio, Battelle Memorial Institute), 1957. (2) "Iron & Steel Scrap: Consumption Prob- lems," U. S. Department of Commerce, U. S. Printing Office, 1966. p. 4.

5.307 Materials 121

5.308 processing cycle. This is not only confined to buildings, though they are a particularly obvious case, but may be extended, for example, to the myriad artefacts of metal, glass, plastics and other materials which are used daily. Unless we begin to account for each phase in this cycle, we cannot, in any real sense, design ’ecologically’ or in terms of over-all efficiency of performance.

5.309 The metals and metallic alloys are an example here where very little has been known about their actual reuse and discard cycles. For each billion tons of main metal ores mined, about two thirds is ’waste’ rock or mine tailings discarded at the mine site. From this point on through foundry processing and fabrication there is some control of ’process’ scrap, but as the finished products go into use, such control is lost and the scrap return cycle has been left to the haphazard operations of the ’salvage’ market. The obscurity of this pattern leads many authorities to talk about metals being ’used up’ through manufacture when, in effect, most metals are almost wholly recoverable – or could be with adequate ’cycling’ design. We may ask then:

5.310 To what extent are they lost in use? To what extent do they follow man-made cycles like the well known carbon cycle in nature, so that the world stock is not depleted?ź

5.311 The only cycle here which has been delineated approximately is that of the ferrous metals, as large amounts of scrap have long been reused in steel making. The detailed scrap and reuse cycles of copper, lead, aluminum, etc., are less clear, though figures of scrap generated and collected in various sectors of industry give some knowledge of the recycling of such metals. Through these we may ascertain the cycle of a given material in its ’use-life’ in various products – but we have no clear picture, for example, of the changing pattern of ’new’ metal versus scrap use in specific industries, or of the various inputs of energy required at different parts of the scrap/reuse cycle, etc., and how these relate to the overall ’energy costs’ of various use performances in different product cycles.

5.312 As we have earlier emphasized, were it not for such ’regenerative’ cycling of industrial materials, we would not have enough metals, etc., to take care of expanding technological requirements. Some indication of the importance of the scrap cycle may be gauged from the following figures, as well as those introduced earlier in our materials discussion:

5.313 About 957,000 tons of copper were recovered from scrap in 1963. This represented about 40 per cent of the total supply of copper in the U.S. for that year and 80 per cent of the total copper produced by domestic mines. The lead recovered from scrap amounted to about 494,000 tons – almost double the 253,000 tons of lead produced in the U.S. during 1963. The annual volume of aluminum scrap is about 25% of the total aluminum supply.ź

5.314 ź "The Recovery of Metals from Scrap", Sir Harold Hartley, Advancement of Science, Vol, II, No. 7, 1942. (N.B. Despite the date, this remains one of the classical and most informative papers in this area).

5.315 ź "Restoring the Quality of the Environment": Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee, The White House, November 1965.

5.316 The increasing number of exotic alloys now used in advanced technologies, their high energy cost in manufacture and strategic importance in missiles and aerospace, for example, has led the military to examine the possibility of clearly identifying metal alloys in use so that they may be more easily recovered.

5.317 In the future, any one of the jet blades, or any component part of a jet aircraft engine, will have the type of metal stamped on it . . . so that regardless of use or wear the type of metal will be known and identifiable.ź

5.318 This example of the scrapping and reuse pattern of metals may seem a narrowly specific one, at some distance from our overall ecological viewpoint. In actuality it is, however, a key ’systems model’ aspect of the entire industrial pattern and its ecological function. This scrap reuse cycle is a parallel of the larger, naturally occurring cycles in the ecosystem, and will furnish the ’systems model’ for the solution of many other problems in the re-design of our major environment facilities.

5.319 ź Proceedings: 37th Annual Convention, U.S. Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Jan., 1965, comments by B. J. Outman, relating to a report entitled, "Marking of Aircraft and Missile System Parts Fabricated From Critical High Temperature Alloys," Air Force and Navy Defense Procurement Department, June 29th, 1964.

5.320 Materials 123

5.321 READINGS LIST MATERIALS

5.322 Agricultural Mechanization. United Nations. New York, 1963.

5.323 Computers and the World of the Future. Martin Greenberger. M.I.T. Press,1964.

5.324 Economic History of World Population. Carlo Cipolla. Pelican Books, 1964.

5.325 European Steel Trends. United Nations. New York, 1949.

5.326 The Geography of Economic Activity. R.S. Thomas. McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1962.

5.327 A History of Industrial Chemistry. F. Sherwood Taylor. New York: Abelard-Schuman, 1957.

5.328 History of Metals. L. Aitchson. MacDonald and Evans, 1960.

5.329 History of the Strength of Materials. S.P. Timoschenko. London, 1953.

5.330 History of Technology. 5 vols. C. Singer, E. J. Holmyard and A. R. Hall, (eds.). Oxford University Press, 1954.

5.331 History of Western Technology. Friedrich Klemm. M.I.T. Press, 1964.

5.332 A History of Science and Technology - 18th and 19th Century. R.J. Forbes & E.J. Dijksterhuis. Pelican Book, 1963.

5.333 Industrialism and Industrial Man. Clark Kerr, John T. Dunlop, Frederick Harbison and Charles A. Myers. Harvard Press, 1960.

5.334 Industrial Standardization in Developing Countries. United Nations. New York. 1964.

5.335 Industrial Scrap Generation. U.S. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense Services, 1957,

5.336 Industrial Wastes. Lipsett. C. H. Atlas, 1951.

5.337 Iron and Steel Scrap, Survey and Analysis of Availability. Department of Commerce, 1957.

5.338 International and Metric Units of Measurement. Marvin Green Chemical Publ. Co., New York.

5.339 Landmarks of Tomorrow. P.F. Drucker, Harper and Row, 1959.

5.340 Long Term Economic Growth 1860 - 1965. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D. C., 1966.

5.341 Machines and the Man. R.P. Weeks (ed). Appleton-Century-Crofts Inc., New York. 1961.

5.342 Man-Computer Symbiosis. J.C.R. Licklider. Institute of Radio Engineers Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics. Vo. HFE-1, No. 1, March 1960.

5.343 Man’s Place in the Dybosphere. R.R. Larrderr. Prentice-Hall, Inc. 1966.

5.344 Medieval Technology and Social Change. Lynn White, Jr. Oxford University Press, 1962.

5.345 A Methodology for Systems Engineering. Arthur D. Hall. Van Nostrand, 1962.

5.346 Mineral Facts and Problems, 1965 ed. Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D. C. 1965.

5.347 Mineral Resources. Dean F. Frasche. National Academy of Sciences, 1962.

5.348 Modern Technology and Civilization. C.R. Walker. McGraw-Hill Books, 1962.

5.349 Natural Resources and International Development. Marion Clawson (ed). Johns Hopkins Press for Resources for the Future Inc. 1964.

5.350 Origin of Invention. Otis T. Mason. M.I.T. Press, 1966.

5.351 Planning for Balanced Social and Economic Development. United Nations. New York 1964.

5.352 Plastics in the Service of Man. E.G. Couzens, and V.E. Yarsley. Penguin Books Ltd., 1956.

5.353 Prospective Changes in Society by 1980. Denver Colorado 1966.

5.354 Psychological Principles of System Development. Gagne (ed.) Holt, Rinehart & Winston, 1962.

5.355 Resources in America’s Future. Landsberg, Fischman and Fisher. Johns Hopkins Press.

5.356 The Rise of Chemical Industry in the Nineteenth Century. F.L. Haber, Oxford University Press, 1958.

5.357 Science and Resources. Henry Jarrett (ed.) Johns Hopkins Press, 1959.

5.358 Stages of Economic Growth. W.W. Rostow. Cambridge University Press, 1960.

5.359 Statistical Summary of the Mineral Industry, 1959-64. Mineral Resources Division, Overseas Geological Survey. London, 1966.

5.360 Statistical Yearbook, 1965. Statistical Office of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. New York, 1966.

5.361 The Story of the Plastics Industry. The Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc. John B. Watkins, 1966.

5.362 Studies in Long-Term Economic Projections for the World Economy. United Nations. New York, 1964.

5.363 Survey and Analysis of the Supply and Availability of Obsolete Iron and Steel Scrap. Business and Defense Services Administration, Department of Commerce. January 1957.

5.364 System Engineering. Goode and Machol. McGraw- Hill, 1960.

5.365 Systems: Research & Design ( Proceedings of the First Systems Symposium at Case Institute of Technology). Donald P. Eckman (ed.) John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1961.

5.366 Technology & Social Change. John F. Cuber. Appleton- Century- Crofts, Inc. 1957.

5.367 Materials

5.368 Technological Trends in Major American Industry. Bulletin No. 1474. U.S. Dept of Labor. Washington D.C., 1966.

5.369 The Unfinished Epic of Industrialization. R. Buckminster Fuller, Jargon Press of Johnathon William’s Nantahala Foundation. Heritage Press, 1963.

5.370 World Economic Development. D.W. Fryer, McGraw- Hill Book Co. Inc. New York, 1965.

5.371 World Economic Survey, 1964. United Nations. New York, 1965.

5.372 World Resource Statistics. 2nd ed. John C. Weaver and Fred Lukerman, Burgess Publ. Co. Minneapolis, Minn. , 1953.

5.373 World Trade and Investment, The Economics of Interdependence. Donald Bailey Marsh. Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1951.

5.374 The World in 1984. Vol. 1/2. Nigel Calder (ed.) Penguin Books. Blt. Md.

5.375 World Prospects for Natural Resources. Fisher and Potter. John Hopkins Press. Md.